Friday, 7 January 2011

Wildcard


A couple of winners yesterday, with AC Milan winning at 2.22 and Roma - Catania going Over 2.5 goals before half-time. I like those quick wins. Brescia disappointed by losing 1-2 at home to Cesena though, and Football Elite came up short with Recommended Bets Bologna and Lecce both failing to win.

A limited menu this weekend with France and Germany messing around with resting and a few friendlies, while in England we have the entertaining, but not for serious betting, FA Cup 3rd Round. So that leaves Spain and Italy, and of the three La Liga games on Saturday, two are weak draws with Barcelona too short at 1.28.

I think I shall be focusing on the NFL Wildcard play-offs this weekend. Two games on Saturday and two on Sunday and the schedule means one game at a time. Liquidity should be good, which means good trading pickings.

History shows that home field advantage is often no advantage at all, and "rest regularly leads to rust". Wild Card Weekend is traditionally the most unpredictable of the three rounds that comprise each conference's tournament. Since the current four-division format was instituted in 2002, the visiting and lower-seeded team has won 14 of the 32 opening-round matchups, or roughly 44 percent. Over the three most recent seasons, exactly half (6-of-12) of the Wild Card entries prevailed on the road and advanced to the next week.

So with that in mind, here are Saturday's games:

NFC: New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are a poor team, losing 7 of their last 10 games, scraping into the post-season by virtue of playing in the weakest division, and should lose to the current champions. They are getting 10.5 points, making them the biggest home underdog in play-off history. Having said that, the Saints aren't as good as last year but at 1.22, that's a little short for a pre-game back.

AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Manning is a better QB than Sanchez, but the Jets have the advantage in the running game, rating fourth in the NFL, while the Colts are only 25th defending the run. Indianapolis are favourites at about 1.8. No pre-game play on this one, but if Manning is off his game, and the Jets are running riot, look to lay another home team. Even if the Colts go ahead, they have a habit of allowing backdoor covers if the handicap is your choice of poison. The spread is just 2.5 here, so this 'should' be the best trading game of the day.

Finally, I haven't met too many billionaires in my life, but in the summer of 1997, I got to meet, and have a casual dinner, with one of America's wealthiest men - Don Tyson, who as a billionaire, had just a little more money than I ever will. A real down to earth guy, who loved to party and game fish, and when he found out I was English, told me several back to back Essex Girl jokes. His response to "What have you been up to lately Don?" was "Drinking and f***ing, not necessarily in that order". He died yesterday aged 80, after an 'interesting', and religion free, life. He was quite a character. It still amuses me that when the bill for dinner arrived, I felt obliged to offer to pay my share.

1 comment:

mully1 said...

Sorry to hear about Don Tyson.