Monday, 24 January 2011

Rovers Return

Another profitable day yesterday, with Bayer Leverkusen (1.92) doing the business at Borussia Moenchengladbach by 3-1, and Blackburn Rovers beating West Bromwich Albion 2-0 at a very generous 2.48. A much needed morale booster for Football Elite on this game too. As I said in my initial write up, the odds here were quite bizarre to my mind. 

Less than a month after winning at WBA by 3-1 (arguably lucky given that Blackburn scored 3 goals from 6 shots, while West Brom had 21 shots, but a win nonetheless) and with a solid home record against lower rated teams, this was good value.

Chievo Verona failed to beat Genoa, and no joy for the strong draws with Udinese beating Internazionale 3-1 and Sporting de Gijon winning 1-0 over Atletico Madrid. The weaker draw selection of Bologna v Lazio finished 3-1.

Not much doing in the NFL games last night. Small profits in both games, but neither the Green Bay Packers nor the Pittsburgh Steelers looked like losing once they had taken 14 point leads, and they will meet in the Superbowl in two weeks.

Back to real football now, and my numbers for the Bolton Wanderers v Chelsea have goals less likely than the prices available would suggest - i.e value on unders. The big difference is in our estimations of how many goals Chelsea will score, presumably because I go back in time a lot less than conventional wisdom suggests I should, and Chelsea's recent games on the road haven't produced many goals. As Bill James discovered in baseball though, just because something has always been done a certain way, doesn't mean it should be done that way.

Unfortunately, by the time the latest features are fully included into the calculations, we will be getting close to 'silly season'. But there's always next season!

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