Monday, 17 January 2011

Never In Doubt

With about 4 minutes remaining in the third quarter, I layed a fair chunk of money on the Philadelphia 'Sixers (see above) who were up by three points against the Charlotte Bobcats. It seemed excellent value to me at the time. A lot of time left, and a one possession game, but the course of profitable trading doesn't always run smooth. By the end of the quarter, the 'Sixers were trading at around 1.2, and with 9:21 to go, the lead was up to 12, the price around 1.03 / 1.04, and my mood was not good.

I updated the spreadsheet with the loss, and went into 'big picture' mode and telling myself that these things happen and remember how good December was etc. I even started praying. Well, I didn't actually go that far, but the outcome was looking bleak.

The lead was at 11 with less than seven minutes left, then 9, then 7 and a flagrant foul called on Philadeplhia. The Bobcats duly hit the free throw, and on the subsequent possession hit a three to get back to where they were when I entered the market, only this time with momentum definitely on their side. I love these moments. A layup, a stop, and a three pointer and the Bobcats were now ahead and favourites.

I wrote a comment on someone's the blog the other day about the thin line between defeat and victory - and while it sometimes seems like the luck is always against you, there are days when a minor miracle happens. (OK, so a 1.03/1.04 shot flip-flopping is not exactly once in a lifetime stuff, but it wasn't looking too good). Ultimately the 'Sixers tied it up late, and won in overtime, but with the Bobcats trading as low as 1.16, I didn't really care by that point.

I'm hoping my daughter doesn't read this. It's her birthday tomorrow, and she might be hoping for more than her usual Rolos and pair of socks.

No comments: