Tuesday, 4 January 2011


Three EPL games tonight and the ratings suggest three home wins, but Fulham at 2.28 v West Bromwich Albion doesn't look great value considering current form. Fulham have won just two home games all season, but they were both against teams starting with a 'W'! A compelling statistic for some maybe, but I'll pass.

At a slightly higher 2.38, Blackpool are more tempting, with form giving them a 0.83 goal superiority, but the value bet here looks Over 2.5 goals to me at 2.08. Blackpool at home are 6 for 6 on Overs, conceding in every game, and Birmingham City away are over 5 and 4 so I'm going for Blackpool and Over 2.5 goals. One concern is the drifting price on Overs, but I'm in now.

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