Friday, 28 January 2011

Channel Crossing

No EPL games this weekend, with the FA Cup Fourth Round, but action in the other majors.

Strong draws? Only three - in Italy, Bologna v AS Roma and in France, Caen v Auxerre and Valenciennes v Olympique Lyon.

Weaker draws are Sochaux v Stades Rennes, Nuremberg v Hamburg, St Pauli v Koln and Deportivo La Coruna v Sevilla.

Home value: I have Real Sociedad (v Almeria) priced at 1.88 and available at 2.06. Almeria have won just three times all season, including a home win last week. Real Sociedad have won five of nine at home, and both games against lower placed teams.

Lorient (2.06) v Brest. I have Lorient as low as 1.57 for this one. Lorient have conceded just one goal in the last five home games, and Brest are not in good form right now.

Lille are value to beat Lens and the -1/-1.5 Asian Handicap (2.0) in my opinion. My ratings have them to win by 2 goals, and priced at 1.28 SU.

Finally, Lecce (2.2) v Cesena. Lecce are in fine form right now, with a win at Lazio, a draw at Fiorentina, and a home draw with AC Milan. Not too shabby. I think 2.2 is a good price.

For an away value pick, I'm going for Paris St Germain at a very poor Arles-Avignon who have won just once all season. They did scrape a 1-1 draw with Lyon back in October, but in all other home games against top half of the table teams, they were beaten. 1.58 may not look a great price, but it's value in my opinion.

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