Tuesday, 25 January 2011

That's Entertainment

After my post yesterday, Sir Alex Ferguson has asked me to publish the following write up on tonight's Blackpool v Manchester United game.

Blackpool have picked up fewer points at home than anyone else (but they have played 2 or 3 games less than anyone else) so they are well overdue a big win over a top team. Yeah, yeah, so Manchester United (of Manchester) are unbeaten, but away from home they have won just two of their ten games. I'm not saying that United definitely won't win, because on any day, or night, of course that is possible, and merely by writing this post, I have single-handedly doomed Blackpool to a 0-4 thrashing!
As entertaining for my readers as the 4-0 win for Chelsea was, I don't think too many people predicted such a convincing performance. One person went so far as to suggest the game was
Probably the hardest game of football to call ever in the history of the game.
I wouldn't go that far, but I'll certainly remember this game for a while.

Being serious about the Blackpool - United game, Over 2.5 goals looks value at 1.62. Blackpool at home are 100% on overs, with every team scoring, and while Manchester United's average away is a modest 1.4, when you extract the games at top six sides, the average goes up to a more reasonable 2 exactly. A United win by 2-1 (9.8) or 3-1 (13) doesn't look a bad bet according to my spreadsheet, but it's been known to be wrong before. In it's defence, it'll take a few weeks before the correct values are all there.

Craig, writer of Against All The Odds, is back, with a long re-opening post, and some kind words:
The third option would be to make this a poor version of Cassini’s blog – Green All Over – a blog that is without compare (Unless it’s actually a meerkat in disguise). This option appeals but I’m not sure I have the imagination or inspiration to find so many diverse topics to write about. Still, it is an option that intrigues me and ideas permitting, I will certainly be looking to make general comments about topical issues.
Thanks Craig.

1 comment:

geoffm said...

Blackpool (probably without an unsettled Charlie Adams ) won't be anywhere near good enough to stop United (as poor as they have been this season) O2.5 now down to 1.59.- the power of your blog!!

More value in 3.5 with a view to trade perhaps?