Monday, 24 January 2011

Bolton Wanderers v Chelsea

I mentioned earlier that for me, I thought the value for tonight's Bolton Wanderers v Chelsea game lay in the unders. Clearly my pricing model underestimates the goal-scoring probability for Chelsea in this game, as I am over-weighting recent games and Chelsea haven't exactly been banging in the away goals of late. In fact since the opening two away games in September, Chelsea have exceeded one goal just once in nine matches, a 2-1 win at Blackburn back in October - almost three months ago. Since then, they have scored (oldest first) 0,0,1,1,1 and 0 so why does the market expect Chelsea to score two goals or more? (This has traded at between 1.72 and 1.77 on Betfair). It's not as if Bolton give up too many goals at home. For their last six home matches, 2,1,2,1,0 and 1. Bolton last lost at home in October, 0-1 to Liverpool. 64% of their home games do go over 2.5 goals, but then 64% of Chelsea's away games go over. I'm not saying that Chelsea definitely won't score two goals or more, because on any day, or night, of course that is possible, and merely by writing this post, I have single-handedly doomed Bolton to a 0-4 thrashing!

Here's another view from BlueOrange

Chelsea's away form has been pretty poor over the last couple of months so god knows why they are the odds on favourite to win this match. Bolton aren't the best team at home with 5 draws but they have only lost once at home this season. My ratings say that the overs markets are where the value is. Recently all my bets have been on overs I put this down to the fixtures producing games with one team a clear form favourite and the other being out of form. Now I know Bolton haven't scored against Chelsea at home since 2002 but this has got to be their best chance yet. I have odds of 1.14 for over 1.5 goals and at the moment that is 1.33 on Betfair.
I don't put too much stock into the fact that Bolton haven't scored at home to Chelsea since 2002, but 1.14 (88%) on Over 1.5 goals looks far too short. I have this at 1.47 (68%), arguably far too long, but it's interesting how two people can have such a difference of opinion. I shall be watching this game with added interest tonight.


Anonymous said...

haha good call on the 4-0!

Baz said...

Is that what they mean by Sod's Law??? Baz

geoffm said...

ouch!! ;-)