Thursday, 6 January 2011

Trading Fingerprint

A mixed bag on the picks tonight. 1 for 1 on the Over 2.5 goals bets for a net profit and a help to the PC, but Bolton Wanderers gave up a late equaliser to Wigan Athletic, so a loser there. A good night for anyone laying the favourite, with just Newcastle United and Everton winning. Contrast with Saturday when all eight favourites won!

Serie A is back after a short winter break, and no strong draws. Genoa v Lazio is a weak draw pick, but of course it is at the shortest price of all the Serie A draws for tomorrow night. Brescia at 2.1 v Cesena are my home value pick, and AC Milan (2.22) away to Cagliari look value also. Roma v Catania at 1.99 for Over 2.5 goals also. I should point out that the Over 2.5 goals tips are more for my own benefit in reducing the PC than out of any conviction that long-term they will be profitable. I'll be happy for these to break even, and I'm looking at games where essentially the Over / Under is a coin-toss but the ratings spreadsheet shows an edge.

I've had a couple of e-mails regarding circumvention of the PC, and they are appreciated, but I am a little concerned that the penalty for getting caught is rather harsh. From the Betfair forum, there was this post, which if true, is enough to scare me away from using another account, which in theory at least, would be easy enough to set up. I guess everybody has their betting / trading style, and it's not hard to imagine that Betfair have software that is sufficiently sophisticated to match the 'fingerprint' from two or more accounts.

Betfair suspends player account and debits €32,000 in premium fees
12/26/2010 12:49:50 PM

Betfair (SBR rating A) has charged a player €32,000 in premium fees. On December 2nd, the player's account was suspended. On December 15th, Betfair reopened the account after debiting the player's account for what it said was "suspicion of premium charges evasion". The player states that he has only bet in 150 markets over the last 4 months, and therefor should not have to pay the assessed fee. Betfair justified its seizure to the player by stating that he and four other accounts from his country made similar market bets. The player denies having any relationship with the other four account holders. Betfair responded to SBR's request for comment by stating the following:

Response from Betfair:

Unfortunately, as before, I am unable to comment on the specifics of any such case (though hopefully this won't lead to you to the conclusion that the players version is always true) where fraud may be an issue.

Some general points that may help you here though.

We have a premium charge that is payable by a very small proportion of our customers. Some customers may try to avoid paying the premium charge by structuring their betting in a particular way. If we find a customer has tried to do this, then we deduct the relevant premium charge from their accounts in accordance with our terms and conditions. All those liable to the premium charge are made aware of these terms and conditions.
I imagine that Betfair have based their decision on slightly more than a 'suspicion', but that aside, I think arbing is the better way to go, both using different markets within Betfair, and by using other trading accounts. Or do Betfair consider, for example, backing 0-0 on the Correct Score market, and laying No Next Goal as "Premium Charge evasion?"

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