Friday, 21 January 2011

Wolfsburg DDDDDDD

A nice even 40 matches on the schedule this weekend in the 'Majors', where strong draw picks are hitting at a very impressive 36.46% for the season. On Saturday, Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur and Koln v Werder Bremen are the contenders, and on Sunday it's Udinese v Internazionale and Sporting de Gijon v Atletico Madrid.

The best of the weaker draws are Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool and Bologna v Lazio.

I thought about including Wolfsburg, who have drawn their last seven league games, not surprisingly the longest in the league, but they are away to Mainz '05, who have gone 18 games without a draw - also the longest. One streak will end tomorrow, that's for sure.

The best away value is Bayer Leverkusen at Borussia Moenchengladbach. I have Leverkusen at 1.81, and they can be backed at 1.92.

And now to the home value picks, which have been something of a challenge in 2011. I have Parma value at 2.07 to beat Catania. The former have lost just once at home (v AC Milan) and Catania have yet to win away. I also have Chievo Verona (2.64) v Genoa and Blackburn Rovers (2.36) v West Bromwich Albion. Blackburn won at WBA less than a month ago, and they also have a decent home record against teams placed lower than them, winning 5 of 7 this season to date. Hoping for 6 from 9. 2.36 looks a decent price.

In tonight's Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Eintracht Frankfurt, the Over 2.5 goals looks value, at around 1.8.

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