Thursday, 8 September 2011

Coming Up This Weekend

The football results from mid-August are finally, after several hours of work, entered into the spreadsheets, and it’s fair to say that I didn’t miss too much by going away. The final weekend of August would have seen three selections for the XX System, with no winners, (although two came close going down in the 88' and to a 92' penalty), while the Value Bets across the four leagues currently in play also had disappointing results. It’s actually quite painful updating an entry as wrong as “Lay Manchester United v Arsenal” but without a crystal ball, decisions are made based on the numbers at the time (although in Arsenal’s case, a steadily declining team rating might well have triggered a red flag, at least until such time as their new rating stabilises). But in three leagues, we at least have some form beginning to tell, so fingers crossed for this weekend.

Early days still, but highlights from the ratings as they now stand include Manchester City’s climb into second place, while Arsenal hold on to sixth place but now are now closer to Swansea than they are to fourth placed Liverpool! At the bottom, Blackburn Rovers are above only Swansea City whose rating is still somewhat up in the air as a promoted team. Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion are the next worst rated non-promoted teams. Value bets this weekend:

In Germany, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are well clear of the chasing pack, and the early relegation candidates are Augsburg, Koln and Hamburg. Weekend value selections are:
In France, Lille lead Olympique Lyonnais and Olympique Marseille, with Sochaux and rapidly improving Paris St Germain not far behind. Value bets for this weekend are:
In Spain, Real Madrid and Barcelona not surprisingly dominate with just one game gone, and the value selections for this weekend (punter beware due to lack of form) are:
Sharp minds may be wondering where Real Madrid and Barcelona are, and the answer is that they are excluded because my prices are significantly out of line with the market as tends to happen when there is a big favourite. For what it is worth, my spreadsheet suggests the value is in laying the Big Two (well they ARE very short) and in backing Unders.

Italy's opening weekend, so the selections are raw and caution is again urged:
Finally, a little late, but I forgot to address a question from Griff who said...
Cassini, I'm after some advice, I've been working on my own ratings for probably 18 months on and off. I think I've found a edge. I've back tested my system over 3 years and it returned good profit each year so far. Over how many seasons would you say I should back test over?
In my opinion, I would say that three or four is probably enough. More than that, and you hit the law of diminishing returns, and the game changes over time so what might work today may well not have worked a few years ago, nor indeed may it continue to work. Good luck with the ratings!

1 comment:

P said...

Hi Casssini

Welcome back from your holiday!

Any news on the trial NFL trading room that is planned with Mark Iverson?

Are you feeling generous enough to share your weekend XX selections in advance?

Finally, I wonder if you might consider publishing your own personal top 5 or top 10 best books about sports betting/trading/investing.

Keep up the good work!