Wednesday, 21 September 2011

Vive la Différence *

It’s typical of betting really, that after a cold spell of 16 XX Draws without a winner, we then hit two in a row, and we have two more selections tonight. Bordeaux v Lille finished 1-1; a winner at 3.35, and anyone laying Bordeaux at 2.98 made a little extra as well. France continues to be weird. For the second round of matches in a row, the Over 2.5 is value everywhere - well almost. In 8 of the remaining midweek games the Over is value, while yet again, a value selection is found in every single Match Odds market. My expectations of goals are clearly more than the market's, but it worked out for the best at the weekend, and this game (investing, not French football), is all about differences of opinion, and my opinion is based on the statistics.

A profitable outcome in Italy too, where my concerns about the accuracy of Novara’s rating were dispelled as they beat a very poor Internazionale team whose rating is in rapid decline. An example of how easy it is to ignore the numbers, and be led astray by the names. Only two seasons ago, Novara was playing at the third level of Italian football, while Inter were dominating Serie A.

In the remaining midweek games in Italy, the spreadsheet suggests the following bets are value:
Not quite so good in Spain again, with Osasuna failing to win at 2.82, and the lay of Villareal (1.7) going down. Real Sociedad were our one winner in La Liga, beating Granada by 1-0 – only two goals more needed for the Over 2.5 goals to be a winner! Here are the rest of tonight's selections:
The two XX Draw selections are posted at Gold All Over together with the latest update.

* Coincidentally, an interesting article on la différence in today's Telegraph. Bonne chance.


pierre said...

it's "bonne chance" luck is female in French

Cassini said...

Thanks Pierre - it's been a while since I studied French! I corrected it.