Tuesday, 13 September 2011

Lows And Highers

Not the easiest of weekends for football, with all the big boys winning except for Liverpool who lost 0-1 at Stoke City, to a penalty after out-shooting the hosts by no less than 20 shots to 6. Stoke scored from their only shot on target, while Liverpool's 11 were to no avail. The Bolton Wanderers v Manchester United was another interesting one from a statistical viewpoint. Bolton had more shots on goal (20 to 13) and shots on target (13 to 9), yet lost 0-5. (Data courtesy of Football Data). A couple of years ago, the results would have been entered in the spreadsheet without further ado, but these days the ratings adjust based on other statistics. On the evidence of this past weekend, it's not helping, but it's early in the season and the better the quality of the statistics entered is, the better the output.

The XX Draws had their second consecutive poor weekend, with no winners from seven selections. The last two games were perhaps a little unlucky, going down to 82' and 86' goals, and then there was the previously mentioned Stoke City v Liverpool game. I'm recording the minutes in which bets become losers, and the average is 54' right now. Whether it would be profitable to lay these bets off at half-time or not is one avenue for further investigation.

The value bets in France were profitable, 1.13 points and 1.02 on the Match Odds and Over / Under 2.5 markets respectively, and in the Match Odds markets in Italy (2.35) and Spain (4.82) but other than that, it was a bleak weekend for football. Football Elite had no Recommended Bets this weekend, and his one Short List bet was Caen to beat Toulouse whereas my value bets suggested a back of Toulouse - who won 1-0. Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks also went 0 for 3 this weekend - Peter had Stoke City v Liverpool as did I, and also Sunderland v Chelsea (1-2) and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur (0-2).

While we are talking about Pete Nordsted, he has stopped his baseball ratings given that we are now at that time the season where commitment isn't necessarily what it should be. Betting is hard enough to make profitable when your selections are trying, never mind when the focus is on resting players and / or bringing in second stringers.

Fortunately there are other sports going on, and I made a small profit on the back of Djokovic's win in the US Open last night. Also in the US, the NFL is back with the first week of action now at an end. Mark Iverson hosted an NFL Trading Room for the Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers game, with myself having a small walk on part. I believe that about 47 people attended, and most seemed to find the session helpful. Unfortunately, from a trading perspective, the game was about as bad as they get - pretty much a 1.10 express train. I took a loss on this game myself, but had more success on other games, and while I would like to blame the distraction of trying to sound knowledgeable as an excuse, in truth, the one-way nature of the game probably meant that it saved me from a bigger loss. The final game of the weekend was the best, when a lay of £20,000 @ 1.22 on the Oakland Raiders at half-time paid off, not with a win, but at least with a profit. It's not often I'm disappointed with a four figure profit, but this was one of those times. The screenshot shows the Gang of 47 what is possible with laying at short odds in the NFL when things go a little more according to plan. If it had REALLY gone to plan, the Denver Broncos would have won, but you can't win 'em all. Onward and upward.


Peter "redimp"Hunt said...

Nice work Cassini

Mark Iverson said...

Great result :-)

Average Guy said...

Hello Cassini, do you remember the game status when you decided to do the lay ? What was the core and what stage was it in the game.

Cassini said...

@AverageGuy: I made the lay at half-time; the Raiders were up by 14.