Tuesday, 13 September 2011

UEFA Champions League 13.9.11

There are relatively few inter-league games, so I don't have a huge amount of confidence in my ratings when it comes to the UEFA Champions League or Europa League games, but for interest, the Chelsea v Bayer Leverkusen market for today's match has Chelsea a tad short.

My spreadsheet has Chelsea at 1.7, but they are currently at 1.53. Not too much of an edge on the Overs, with 1.96 available versus my calculation of 1.83. 1-0 is a little short too, 7.2 available to lay while I have this score at 9.3.
The Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal prices are close to my own, with no significant edge on the Match Odds market, but the Under 2.5 goals is slight value at 1.96.

In the third of the inter-league games, Barcelona are too short at 1.28, but the AH -2.0 at 2.32 is looking good value. 2.74 on the Unders looks huge as well. I will probably see how this plays out with a view to trading out fairly early. The market clearly expects more goals in this match than the recent league records of the two teams suggest, but league form doesn't always carry over into other competitions, and recent league form is not exactly deep. Just for fun in other words. No laying £20k on any of these picks!

Speaking of which, who is backing that kind of money at 1.22 with half the game to go? It was all from one account, so it wasn't a number of individuals. Money is relative of course, but risking a sum that size in a sport as volatile as the NFL seems a little reckless.


Flutter F1 said...

With regards to your recent post linking to the books you have read, I'm not sure if you were aware but 'Moneyball' the film is out soon staring the one and only Brad Pitt. I got myself a copy of the book to read before my mind gets polluted with the Hollywood version like '21' did.

Cassini said...

Thanks Flutter F1. I'm looking forward to it. See my Switching Horses post of Sept. 11 - I'm a little disappointed you're not reading EVERY post!

Flutter F1 said...

Ha! I do read every post but somehow missed that. Let's hope it lives up to expectations.

Ryan said...


Nice post. Just wondering how you knew it was all one account who matched that £20k bet?

Cassini said...

If the bet is matched against multiple bets, each bet is shown individually. The lay was matched against just one bet - in fact, there was a little more available but my self-imposed limit is £5k.