Monday, 5 September 2011

Re: Charging

There's a lot of nonsense written about the benefits of taking a break from sports investing. All it means to me is missed opportunities. As I haven't exactly missed my official job during my two weeks away, perhaps the "need to recharge my batteries" comments apply to those for whom betting is a full-time activity, but for someone like me, where it is a hobby which just so happens to make me some extra money, I must say I find it quite frustrating to not be involved with updating my spreadsheets with results, both sporting and financial, and looking ahead to what the ratings are predicting.

As you may have gathered, I have returned, a few pounds (lbs.) heavier and a few pounds (£s) lighter, and the first order of the day is to catch up the results from the last few weeks. Anyone who follows systems or tips will probably identify with my feelings as I update my spreadsheets. Any missed winners, despite validating the method by which they were selected, are on some level at least, annoying, while any missed losing bets are somehow met with a totally inappropriate smugness that you somehow dodged a bullet on that one. Having checked my e-mails, I can see that I dodged a few bullets after missing Football Elite's selections from the past two league weekends. I've not had time to read other blogs or forums yet, but it would not be a surprise if there were some rumblings of discontent out there. Have the ever maturing markets finally closed in on the inefficiency that Matt identified a few years ago, or is 2011 simply a blip in the run of continued success?

My own XX Draws have had a storming start to the season, at least up to August 21st, and I am seriously considering making these available on a subscription basis only. It's not something I'm really too comfortable with, but it was pointed out to me on my holiday that giving away profitable selections is, while generous, perhaps not too smart. The consensus was that Draw selections haven't been fashionable since the heyday of Littlewoods, Vernons and Zetters, one reason why the draw price tends to hold up excepting in late season Italian games, but perhaps there are enough investors out there who might be sophisticated enough to understand that draw betting can see some challenging losing sequences as well as the welcome hot streaks but that the Elo based ratings do, for the time being at least, consistently find value. I shall no doubt update the results for the weekend of August 20th, produce the selections for the weekend of August 27th, and go 0 for 7 and drop the idea completely.


Talkbet said...

Welcome back!
Could I maybe add a suggestion that if you're making the draw backs a subscription based service you also bring back the black and white headshots of winners with the obligatory black line across their eyes ?
And underneath each photo a caption like "Mr X from Croydon won £1000 on the Draw system last week" ?
If you're looking for collectors then I'll volunteer for some local streets round my area, Wednesdays nights no longer being Pools Night, we can christen them Cassini's XX night ?
Cracking idea.

The Sultan said...

Hi Cassini, regarding 'recharging batteries', I think the validity of this depends on the reasoning. I am full-time and find that some time out for a few days really makes a huge difference. Day to day trading really takes it out of you mentally.

However, some people just 'recharge batteries' because they are on a losing streak, which could very well mean missing out on those opportunities which could turn it around.

I do think a few hours away from the ladders during a bad patch definitely has benefits though, as somtimes you need to take a step back, cool down and rationalise. But weeks off really isn't going to make any difference. Best to get back on the horse and work through any issues in my opinion.