Saturday, 17 September 2011

Overs All Over

Something very strange is going on in France. Of the 10 Ligue 1 matches last weekend, I found value in just 4 matches (2 won, 2 lost) but the key point here is that my prices were close to the market's in 60% of the matches. 

In the Over / Under category, I had just 3 value bets (2 won, 1 lost) and I was close to the market on the other 7 matches. So why is it that this weekend, I am finding value in every match? Both Match Odds and Over / Under markets? 

Even stranger is that in every Over / Under market, my spreadsheet says the value is on the Overs in every match. Every one. This usually means one thing, and if it were anyone else I would definitely say it was, a mistake, but the other leagues have at least some games close to the market. 

It makes me a little hesitant about putting these bets on though.

It hardly makes me appear the sophisticated value seeking punter when I back Overs 10 times, but since nobody is looking, what the hell. I'll chalk it up as anomaly for now, but it'll be interesting how the results play out, and it'll be interesting how my prices compare with the markets in the midweek games. I don't like midweek games. It means little time to get the data from one round of matches entered before the next round is upon me.

The XX Draws are having a poor run, the worst of 2011 anyway, with another loser last night in the Freiburg v Stuttgart game. I've posted the rest of this weekend's selections over at Gold All Over for anyone who is interested. The ROI on this season is down to 33.1% which is still excellent, and an increase on the second half of 2010-11, but losing runs can be wearying.

For my value bets this week, the top value Match Odds bets in each league are:

Lay Arsenal 1.95 @ Blackburn Rovers (Edge 35.5%), Back Auxerre 2.1 v Caen (34.6%), Lay Werder Bremen 2.68 @ Nuremberg (31.6%), Back Atalanta 2.44 v Palermo (24.5%); Lay Valencia 2.28 @ Gijon (45%).

Best Value Over / Under: Bolton v Norwich City Over 1.9, Nice v Ajaccio Over 2.72, Schalke '04 v Bayern Munich Under 2.53, Parma v Chievo Over 2.5, Real Zaragoza v Espanol Over 2.31.


wilf said...

i hope you did back overs!!

fairfranco said...

6 out of 7 overs very good!

the match odds bets weren't quite as successful.

P said...

Hi Cassini

Before Fulham's unlikely comeback to equalise against Man City and end the diabolical XX losing streak, there were 16 consecutive losers.

I was wondering how this streak ranks as far back as your draw records go.

If we assume average odds of 3.5, then the probability that any single match will NOT be a draw is about 0.71 (not factoring in your edge, which means that the probability is actually a bit less). The probability of 16 consecutive independant events with a probability of 0.71 is 0.00416997, or about 1 in 240.

Secondly, would you consider offering a paid service that would get subscribers your XX ratings as well as the match odds and over/under value ratings for each of the five major European leagues by Thursday or Friday of each week?

You kindly drip feed your loyal readers a bit each week, but without all of the selections, it is very difficult to fullow a system for a particular league and market category over the course of the season.

Finally, if you are doing ratings for match odds and goals for the five major European leagues, does that mean that you are placing 50-100 value bets per week?

That's a lot to monitor, especially if you are always trying to get slightly better odds on an exchange...