Wednesday, 7 September 2011

Wrong Thinking

One of the keys to profitable betting is learning not to bet on what you THINK will happen, but betting on the outcome that offers value. I was reading a blog post at Sports Trading Life about last night's England v Wales match, and the author wrote:
Last night England started the match priced @ 1.16 and went as low as 1.07 when they took the lead. However, the 1-0 lead flattered England and I could see on Twitter that many people were now laying England at those short odds in case Wales actually managed to equalise. From a personal point of view, as soon as the match started I could see England were playing badly however I still expected they would sneak the win so having a Lay bet on England certainly didn’t make sense.
The point the author fails to grasp is that clearly, most of the world and his auntie THINK that England will win, but was their probability of winning 0.93 or more ? If not, then a Lay bet on England makes perfect sense. Simply basing your bets on what you THINK will happen rather than on the PROBABILITY of what will happen is not a winning strategy, and this applies to matches involving 'your' team even more, in that many people find it hard to bet against their heart.


GolfingGolfer said...

Slight hint of outcome bias thrown into the analysis.

Would 1.8 be good value if the game was repeated a 100 times? hmmmm

Lay Away said...

Hi Cassini

Good to see you are back in full swing, I have just started a blog and would really appreciate a link exchange


Lambretta said...

Great post.

I love games priced in this way. Laying the Fav and backing them in the CS market is really cheap and really effective.

Handy Andy said...

I agree with your post and that's why I never trade a game involving my beloved QPR.