Sunday, 25 September 2011

Simple Minds

The XX Draws are back in form, winning 4 of 5 this weekend, except that of course, 'form' has nothing to do with it. Randomness contain no patterns, though to less sophisticated investors than readers of this blog, random events may sometimes appear to have a pattern to them. 

At an average price of close to 3.5, a strike rate of 37% is pleasing. We have no control over whether the winners come in bunches or evenly spaced, but it shouldn't matter so long as they keep coming.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks had a great weekend too, finding two winners from three EPL matches, helped by a 90'+ own goal at Queens Park Rangers today. One could do a lot worse than combine these draw selections.

I came across this example of a (not so) sharp mind on the Betfair forum today. A customer for at least two years, he posted:
I just want your insight on something that looks quite attractive to me in terms of betting over the long-term. What are your views on the following?

If I start with an initial bet of USD 100 and place ONLY one single bet (mostly live) at the odds of 1.10 today and bet with the winnings of USD 110 tomorrow and so on and so forth DAILY, choosing a SINGLE BET at the same odds of 1.10, over 80 days, should all of them win, it will win around USD 200,000.

Does that look too far-fetched?

I know that the key here is DISCIPLINE as well as LUCK!

But what’s the probability of the 1.10 odds not winning, barring the recent shocking performances by Real and Barca?

And yes, I’m not confining myself to football only. The bets can be placed on tennis, basketball, baseball etc.

Views as well as feedback from past experience most welcome!
An amazing idea, and the only surprise is that no one has thought of this before. I loved the line "But what’s the probability of the 1.10 odds not winning barring...". This basic misunderstanding of probability from Betfair users who have clearly not learned much during their apprenticeship is a great example for why we should be putting poor value bets out there! Somehow, our friend believes that his bets at 1.1 will defy the odds and never lose. Barring the recent shocking performances by Real and Barca, which of course, can never happen again.

1 comment:

NICK said...

more comedy gold!