Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Career Advice

Finally, a much better weekend on the football with the XX Draw Selections finding two winners from four selections, and three winning on the Under 2.5 market. I also offered subscribers six value under selections, four of which were winners, and even more pleasing was that three were scoreless games - Bologna v Parma (1.77), Levante v Real Zaragoza (1.81)and Hoffenheim v Hannover '96 (1.92). The other winner was Nuremberg v Hertha Berlin (1.95), with the losers being Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz '05 (2.01) and Santander v Getafe (1.67). The I'll add these to the tipster table once the number of selections increases, but with few matches, the ROI is rather misleading.

The latest Tipster Table is here:

Backing the draw on Ian Erskine's Lay the Draw selections is on a losing run right now, but this method still leads the table in terms of ROI. Backing Under on the XX Draw Selections moves up to second place, while Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster drops to third after drawing a blank this weekend, although a little unlucky with two of his picks losing to 85' and 90' goals.

Mark J's selections are in fourth place, after a small profit this weekend, while Geoff's draws continue to struggle and drop to fifth. The final profitable method is the XX Draws mentioned previously, and in negative territory is Football Elite who had a disappointing weekend with one push, and three losers.

In eighth is Green Pullover, who managed to find one winner in 34 selections before a draw in his final pick this weekend, and Griff improved his ROI, if not his points, with one winner from five for an ROI of 48.5%.The random selections remain in ninth spot because I forgot to randomly pick any this weekend.

It's interesting how all of the draw-seeking methods have had long losing runs of late, of 15, 16, 17 and 20. Not unexpected that a losing run like that would be hit, but for Griff, the XX Draws, Geoff and the Green Pullover all around the same time is odd.

SJ knows the way to my blog roll is with a little sweet-talking, and writes:
Hi Cassini, apparently flattery is a good way to go about getting a blog link. Well yours is definitely the best gambling themed blog I've come across. Its impressive that you're able to blog so consistantly well on such a regular basis.

Anyway, my blog is at http://itonlymatterswhentheresmoneyonit.blogspot.com catchy, I know. Feel free to check it out and hopefully it will be worthy of inclusion on your blogroll
It helped that the new blog actually looks well written. As the Green All Over board of director was reviewing it, he noticed this:
Several times I've considered giving up work and gambling for a living, current winnings whilst trading less than part-time (i.e. when I can be bothered) alone would be more than adequate to live off but I'd be very hesitant to actually do so.
Hesitant with good reason I would say. Unless you have a unique edge (perhaps inside information) that will endure forever, or at least for long enough for you to not worry about working again, why would anyone give up a career to trade sports for a living? Later in the post, SJ wrote:
Secondly, contrary to something I recently read on another blog but conveniently forget the location, the markets do evolve and any edge I have isn't guaranteed to last, what with the Premium Charge about to rear its ugly head and the increasing presence of bigger fish.
That may well have been this blog, because I have written on this subject before - may times. Edges disappear, and external factors such as the introduction of a Premium Charge or Super Premium Charge do happen. The goal posts can and do move. If you can find an edge, then someone else can too. It's unlikely that you will remain top dog forever. And there is always the risk that in-play gambling (for example) will become illegal, or some other black swan event will mean that your ability to make a profit vanishes overnight. If you have a career, be thankful, hang in there, and trade on the side. A career is about much more than just the pay. Each year is an investment in your future, something that gambling doesn't offer. Yes, it may sound very exciting, especially to the younger and more impressionable among us, but the truth is that gambling for your living is unsociable, stressful, and bloody hard work.

Finally, a big day today for the football club that has been a huge part of my life for more than forty years. Another trip to Wembley would be a nice memory.

1 comment:

Average Guy said...

Hi Cassini, I'm considering drafting a model for price predictions for Overs markets based on correct score probability. My question is, do the correct score probabilites drive the Overs price, or does the Overs price drive the correct score prices ? Hope I asked it correctly as I am even more confused now.