Friday, 13 January 2012

Friggatriskaidekaphobia Strikes Again

It really does make it much easier to post regularly, when there are some comments to respond to. As with many activities in life, the hardest part of posting is getting started, and when the start is taken care of, the rest flows much easier. In the order they were received, I had another request to add a blog to my blog roll. Having learned my lesson from the previous request, I am not inclined to do so, in part because it is a horse racing blog, but mainly because it comprises of a number of selections daily, but with no accompanying mention of why the selection supposedly represents value or any qualifications the author may have that give him any kind of an edge. It simply doesn’t make sense to me that someone from outside of the racing industry can find an edge in the sport. For anyone interested, the blog is called The Form Expert, but I doubt that too many readers pass through here looking for racing tips.

Next up were a couple of comments related to hits and views of this blog. Gambling Geek suggested I use Feedburner to track my rss subscribers, and I spent a few minutes adding this. It seemed straightforward enough, but time will tell whether the stats work. I appreciate the suggestion anyway. Scott Ferguson commented that my “Alexa rank is also very poor” which would be very disturbing if I knew what an ‘Alexa rank’ was. I called my Doctor, (Dr Spooner), but he was less than helpful. Said something about "tasting his wine". In full, Scott’s comment was:
considering the amount of referrals I get from your site each week, your Alexa rank is also very poor. But Alexa stats have been shown to be flawed anyway, and you say that much of your audience is via RSS feeds...
Being a one-man, not-for-profit blog, these stats are of academic interest only anyway. If hits meant money, then I might take it a little more seriously, speaking of which, what happened to my plan for everyone to hit the Donate button and give me an accurate count? By that measure, I receive a not too impressive total of zero hits which must mean that either there is a problem with Statcounter, or PayPal is broken. [Since I wrote that line, I have to report that I now do have some hits to report, as Franjo from Croatia made a very much appreciated donation. Thank you! Very generous.]

A trading comment next from 500-500 who wrote:
Just looking at the NBA earlier. I didn't trade any (wish I had) but Miami Heat were trading at 1.3 at one point against the LA Clippers. If you had laid Miami, at those fairly low odds you would have won, as the LA Clippers won the game. Bugger, wish I had put some money on it now.
You will see this almost every night in the NBA. If you look at the charts towards the end of a game, you will almost never see a price go to 1.01, in other words there is almost always a trading opportunity. I made some on the Los Angeles Clippers v Miami Heat game myself, laying at 1.55 when Miami held a five point lead, but with the Clippers looking strong. Knowing that Miami had played the night before, losing a game that went to overtime, the all-important momentum seemed to be moving towards the Los Angeles Clippers. I also prefer it when it’s the home team rallying, and the crowd starts getting involved. In the end, this game also went to overtime, and the Clippers prevailed. My suggestion is to get involved, and play with small stakes in these games and get a feel for how the markets move. Once you have watched a few (hundred) games, you will have the confidence to know that even if you lose often, the times that you win more than compensate.

Average Guy commented on my first ever betting shop bet, and the inability to lay bets off in those days. He wrote:
"There was no laying off in those days though". I'm surprised, why not dutch back the other 3 teams, was that not the equivalent ? Had you not evolved into the omnipotent trader / gambler, if not, when did the transition take place ?
Trading sports events in those days just didn’t exist. You put your bet on and waited for the event to complete – a strange world. I was never a ‘serious’ gambler, and that bet was a ‘fun’ bet rather than an attempt at making money, although £132 back then was a month’s salary! Had Crystal Palace reached the final, I might have covered the bet to secure a profit whatever, and pay for my ticket, but 1976 was a long time ago, and I’m not sure the thought crossed my mind to be honest. Dutching was certainly a lot more complicated in those days, and a lot more expensive with the betting tax. The transition mentioned took place with my discovery of betting exchanges in March of 2004, though it took me a while, almost two years, to find a winning method.

Captain Webb somehow found the time to write two comments:
Enjoying the daily posts! Don't know how you find the time tbh.
Tbh, nor do I sometimes, but when I skip a day, there is uproar, so I am making an effort. Seriously, my style of trading involves a lot of waiting, and writing a post is an activity that it well suited for this time. Reading a book takes the mind too far away from the background sport, but blogging, with its frequent pauses for inspiration to arrive, seems almost perfect. Also, I don’t sit down and write a post in one session, but quite often write it over the course of several elapsed hours.

A nice comment, and again, it is appreciated. The second comment was to request the addition of Betfair Banter to my blog roll.
Hi Cassini, I'm one of the 600 (or more?!) who reads your blog daily. It's a great read and the first I added to my blog. I'd really appreciate it of you could add my new blog (http://wwww.betfairbanter.blogspot.com) to your blogroll.
Now I know why he was so nice earlier! Unfortunately, the address resulted in a Blog not found message... so my review is pending a correct address.

Geoff sent me his draw selections for this weekend, and they are:

Blackburn Rovers v Fulham (3.3); Millwall v Birmingham City (3.3); Nottingham Forest v Southampton (3.4); Portsmouth v West Ham United (3.3); Watford v Reading (3.3); Bury v Sheffield United (3.4); Rochdale v Stevenage (3.5); Dumbarton v Brechin City (3.5)

And finally, in a quiet night in the NBA, just a couple of comebacks worth mentioning. Two teams, the Charlotte Bobcats and the New York Knicks never led in their games, while the Detroit Pistons did lead - by all of one point lead. Phoenix Suns lost an eight point lead at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers trading at about 1.27, but it was a slightly tentative lay at this price given Phoenix's form at home (100+ points in their last three home games) so only a small win. The final game was the Golden State Warriors v Orlando Magic, two teams who can score points in a hurry, and great for trading. The Warriors took a 13 point lead in the second quarter, and traded as low as 1.32, far too low for a team of Orlando's quality, and by half-time the lead was down to just four, two just before the half, and that 1.32 was up to 1.93. The second half was tight to near the end, before the Magic finally won by a rather flattering eight points.

Eleven games tonight, and while predicting the games most likely to offer an opportunity, I'll be looking at the San Antonio Spurs v Portland Trailblazers game for an entry point. San Antonio and Portland both average 100+ points over the last 10 games, and give up 98 and 95 respectively. No Points Total Market posted yet, but it should be around 193.5. Spurs, unbeaten at home this season, are 1.82 now, but if they take an early lead, look to lay and wait for the trailing Blazers to rally.

And of course, merely by suggesting the possibility out loud, I have single-handedly guaranteed a steady drop to 1.01 for the Spurs, with a sensational 25 point comeback in the easy-to-miss Wizards - Sixers game instead!

5 comments:

Rob The Builder. said...

Can I beg a return to your blog roll :)

I will not be posting daily selections without detailed information as to why value exists, honest.

I won't talk in detail about horse racing or any other sport you dislike.

Sadly, I may drift into 'off-the-subject' areas, but I'm sure I can be excused if I stick 5p on your nice new Donate button.

Cheers

500-5000 said...

I think the reason that you were unable to add 'wwww.betfairbanter.blogspot.com' to your blog is because the poster added an extra 'w' in 'www'.

Today's post was a great read (as usual). Thanks for the advice on the NBA as well.

Captain Webb said...

Haha! That wasn't the reason I was nice (honest). I have posted on here before but this username is new and setup for the use of my blog. Sorry for the incorrect address it's actually http://betfairbanter.blogspot.com/

I can see the value in laying short prices in play with plenty of game time left but the odds aren't always that wrong at the time and your gambling on things changing which they often will from 1.1. My question is when you've traded a 1.1 and it got to 1.5 and you didn't trade out and it went on to win do you think this influences your next trade where you lay at 1.1? i.e. do you think you will be more inclined to get out at around 1.5 because of the previous result?

It's for this reason I think manual inplay betting (without bot) can be tough and I would think most people would do better letting each lay bet run without trading out. Have you ever done any calculations to see what your results would be if you did this? I read recently on the betfair forum that by 'greening up' you had to find 2 value bets rather than 1 (or at least one at correct price and you are also paying commission on most markets. If you trade out only when your bet is looking like a loser you can red out and your effectively getting a winning bet without paying any commission. Would be great to hear your thoughts on this.

Griff said...

My Draws for the weekend are:

Liverpool v Stoke
West Brom v Norwich
Swansea v Arsenal

Brian said...

Good read.

If you skip out the www part of a web adress than it will still take you there (just tried it and it worked) as the www part is pretty much redundunt nowadays. The main reason I know this is that I came across a website that had www2 as the beggining of the adress and I was a bit confused.

What actually makes you soooo negative towards the horses? You say too many people have inside information. Therefore you say there's no edge to be had. Well surely there's a lot of people in one football team that potentially has inside information that average joe doesn't have.