Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Under / Over Prices From Correct Scores

Average Guy wrote:
Hi Cassini, I'm considering drafting a model for price predictions for Overs markets based on correct score probability. My question is, do the correct score probabilities drive the Overs price, or does the Overs price drive the correct score prices ? Hope I asked it correctly as I am even more confused now.
The Correct Score probabilities determine the prices for the Under / Over markets.

Calculate the Correct Score prices and then sum the probabilities for the scores that you need for the Unders. The Overs will be 1 minus the probability of the Unders.

For example, to calculate the probability of Over 1.5, sum the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 probabilities, and subtract this total from 1. For the Over 2.5, add the above three to the 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2 probabilities for the Under 2.5 probability, and subtract from 1 for the Over 2.5 probability.

And repeat as necessary. This is actually the easy part!

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