Wednesday, 4 January 2012

Confusion Elo

I found myself in an interesting situation earlier this morning, when I just happened to be in the right place at the right time. I noticed that a college basketball was going to overtime, and those five minutes are often more value rich than the 40 minutes of regular play. As it happened, liquidity was awful, until the very end of overtime when Wisconsin, three points down to Michigan State, hit a three-pointer to tie the game. Or did they?

Television replays showed a situation I hadn't seen before, as the clocks on the backboard and the clocks in the arena were out of sync. For anyone not familiar with the rules of basketball, for a shot to count, it needs to be out of the player's hands before the clock shows 0.0, but in this case, when the ball was released, the backboard clock showed 0.0 while the arena clocks showed 0.2. There was also some initial doubt as to whether the shot was a two or three point shot.

With confusion abounding, a decent chunk of money showed up at evens for Michigan State. Now considering that at the very worst, the three pointer was good, we would be in for another five minute overtime period, and there are worse things in life than being on at evens in a tied game after 45 minutes. So 2.0 seemed very generous, and the blink instinct told me to take it even before I had rationalised it in my head.

Whether my next move was smart or not is debatable. The opportunity to lay off at 1.5 suddenly appeared, and again, without too much thought, I layed off my risk, keeping all the green on Michigan State, which is only appropriate given that they play in green!

The final verdict was that the shot would have been a three-pointer, but the officials go by the time on the backboard, so it didn't count. It wasn't a rule that I was aware of, and it was likely a very rare event. It just goes to show that you never know what can happen. Thinking about it now, it probably wasn't a value lay on my part, but it all happened very fast, and obviously being able to give myself a worry-free bet was a key factor.

The Elo ratings based spreadsheet suggested value on the Under in tonight's two Premier League matches, and Newcastle United v Manchester United was very close to also being an XX Draw selection. I also dabbled in the Copa del Rey match between Real Sociedad and Real Mallorca which would also have been an Under selection had the game been a league game, but I chickened out after two goals for a very small green. Should have left it. La Liga resumes this weekend after it's short break.

I was recently asked to add this blog to my blog roll, and I obliged, being the obliging chap that I am. However, it's frankly dreadful.

***STAR BET***
1. NBA - Miami Heat to beat Indiana Pacers@ odds of 1.27
The Miami Heat lost the last game, they are the best team in the NBA, are at home and will want to beat Indiana! They should have more than enough to beat the Pacers.
***STAR BET***

2. NBA - Orlando Magic to beat the Washington Wizards@ odds of 1.1. A small trade recommended.

3. NBA - Dallas Mavericks to beat Phoenix Suns@ odds of 1.26
Dallas are current NBA Champions and they are at home. They should beat the 38 year old NBA Stalwart Steve Nash who Phoenix are relying on to carry the team.

4. NBA - New York Knicks to beat Charlotte Bobcats@ odds of 1.14
New York are big favourites, so the odds are low so we recommend a small trade here.
Oh dear. If only it were that easy. Trust me when I say that this is not how you win long-term on the NBA.

Those of you who are younger than me, i.e. most, may have missed the rather clever post title, but the link in the third paragraph will make it all so clear.

"I'm sick of people comparing Jeff Lynne to God - he may be the almighty but he'll never be Jeff Lynne"


Peter "redimp"Hunt said...

Well that came out of the blue :-)

Cassini said...

Yeah - I checked my numbers and it was a New World Record. Quite a Discovery, and On The Third Day of the year too. About Time the Balance Of Power shifted. After all these puns, time to Face The Music and continue looking for my Eldorado :)