Sunday, 15 January 2012

Random Fluctuations

My NBA activities were limited overnight due to the NFL play-offs. The New England Patriots were very short versus the Denver Broncos, 1.16 pre-game, and this often provides an opportunity. When the Patriots scored first and the price dropped to 1.1, I layed, and topped up as the price dropped to 1.05 as they took a 14-0 lead.

When Denver scored, and the price moved out to 1.1, my averaging meant I was able to get out with a profit, and green all over.
A free bet on the Broncos, but unfortunately the winning green was that on the Patriots, as they demolished the Broncos and justified their short SP. But the thing is with the NFL, one interception at 7-14, and a tied game, and each tick with those numbers represents a decent profit. Interestingly, I noticed that Betfair does not allow a stake of £10,000.01. I probably won't report the issue though, at £10k plus, the penny really isn't too important. The breaks in the NFL just give me too much time to play around.

After that, I looked at the Utah Jazz v New Jersey Nets game where the Jazz seemed to be trading too low in the first half, but the lead, at one point down to four, was extended by half-time and they ended up winning easily enough. I picked the wrong game - Atlanta Hawks v Minnesota Timberwolves saw a late comeback, with the T'Wolves up by 18 with 3:40 left in the third quarter. Less than 5 minutes later it was a two point game! Atlanta won by two. The Rockets v Blazers game went to OT, but you can't be everywhere at one time.

And in the Los Angeles derby, the Lakers never led, and while the Clippers always looked too short against a team riding a five game winning streak, and the Lakers did show occasional signs of life - Kobe Bryant score 40 points for the second consecutive game - I took a big hit on this one. Averaging down doesn't always mean a profit.

Not a great weekend really, and biggest loss since March 24th. It happens. I'd say it was bad luck, but there is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability. Here's hoping that Lady Random Fluctuations of Probability visits me soon.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The real tading oppertunity last night was the ealier game with the 49ers hitting 1.14 as they took a 17-0 lead early on. The Saints managed to fight back and, with the 49ers lead shortened to just 3pts, the 49ers were odds against at HT.

And then there was teh 4th quarter...