Sunday, 7 August 2011

Blue Moon

Over the years, the evidence is overwhelming that I do not have the ability to read an in-play football game as well as others, so my entry points are typically pre-game or at half-time when my slow and ageing brain can make sense of the prices. Many times in the past, I have seen Manchester United behind in a game, and pondered a lay of their opponents, but pondering is about as far as I've gone, and I've then sat there kicking myself as the comeback begins. Once in a blue moon*, I actually put my money where my pondering was, today being one such occasion, laying Manchester City at 1.23 at half-time, reasoning that Sir Alex Ferguson would have dished out some tough words along with the slice of orange in the dressing room, and that 1.23 was a little on the low side. It may 'only' be the FA Community Shield, but I couldn't see United rolling over. Looking back now, it seems so obvious, why didn't I put more on?, but it's a start. Unfortunately, when United win the Shield, they go on to win the League!

In the less emotion driven world of ratings driven value betting, the XX (formerly strong draw) picks have started the new season where they left off the last, with Nancy v Lille finishing 1-1. Montpellier and Auxerre were level to the 75' minute, but two late goals for the home side saw that bet go down.

The opening weekend in the Bundesliga was highly profitable, and would have been even more so had I gone with Mainz were a big winner too. Rated at 2.65, the 4.4 available represented a huge 66% edge, although my cautious spreadsheet recommended the more cautious lay of Bayer Leverkusen. When the price is high, and I realise that 'high' is a relative term, the decision on whether it is better to lay the opponent or back the longer odds is something I need to research further. Right now, I lay the opponent if the odds are greater than 4.0 (I like a steady flow of winners), but that rule cost me money today on both Bundesliga games. Mainz '05 won at 4.4, and Moenchengladbach won at 15.0, whereas my wins were lays at 2.01 and 1.24 respectively. The difference between the two strategies is shown in the two screenshots below.

Too small a sample of course to be meaningless, but I'll review it later in the season when we have more data.

The MLB picks keep on giving, with a recommended back of the Boston Red Sox v New York Yankees paying off yesterday at 3.38 - take a look at Gold All Over to see the form that these picks are in right now.

Finally, a suggestion from Scott:
I continue to read your blog with great interest.

It's always nice when one's intellect and ego are versatile enough to serve up a cocktail of wisdom, humour, and self-deprecation in equal measure.

I was wondering if you had ever considered offering some of your followers the opportunity to trade along side you during NFL and NBA matches for a reasonable monthly fee in the same fashion that Pete Nordsted does with Premier Betting for the EPL?

You seem to have the required interest, aptitude, and experience to trade these two challenging leagues profitably, which is not easy to find given the limited liquidity and unsocial hours that a majority of the games are played.

Just an idea - no harm in gauging demand for such a service if it is something that appeals to you.
It's not something that I would be opposed too, although there will likely not be any NBA for some time. (Incidentally, the WNBA isn't too shabby for liquidity on Betfair for those like me who love their basketball. The same strategies work just as well - most of the time!) If anyone knows an easy way to set this up for an NFL game, let me know. I remember trading one game (Indianapolis Colts v someone) alongside a few traders a couple of years ago that Marky Sparky, no sorry - Mr. Mark Iverson, set up - perhaps he would be prepared to oblige again with the new season not too far away.

I'll update the French results from the weekend later. Not so good as the German ones, so my enthusiasm is a little low!

* A blue moon actually occurs once every two and a half years, so I wasn't speaking literally.


Mark Iverson said...

Hi Cassini,

I used 'Cover It Live' when I tried my hand at the live trading stuff a couple of years back.

Really enjoyed doing that but it was difficult to trade and type at the same time. NFL well suited to it though.

All the best


NICK said...

I'd certainly be interested as the NBA and NFL are to sports I'd like to master trading wise.

gundulf said...

Much as it doesn't bother me seeing Utd go 2 down against anyone as a trader a lay of the opponents (except, maybe, Barcelona) is normally a bit of a no brainer. The second City goal was... fortunate, and in my opinion the 1.23 on offer just had to be taken. And so it proved - out to north of 5 after only a few minutes. Hopefully there'll be plenty more of these opportunities once the proper football season starts!