Saturday, 6 August 2011

We Apologise

I feel bad about my gentle dig at the use of 'we' and 'our' in my recent Blog Wars post. It never occurred to me that the writer was not actually a native English speaker, which in itself is testament to how good Tore's English is, and he writes:

I’m not an English native speaker and I thought that the plural could be used in pieces of writing (like a disclaimer) that needed to sound ‘neutral’. Everyone following the blog knows that there’s not a team but only one person.
Tore also mentions that
The mailing list on the blog was activated because it was requested by many readers. I never gave emails to anyone else, I never used them to send spam or adverts (also, I don’t have anything to advertise)
Anyway, enough on that, and on to more important matters and the Bundesliga today. The Cassini Under / Over 2.5 value bets went 1-1, with the losing game seeing two goals after the 85'. While two out of two would have been great, the one winner at 2.32 means a winning start to this category of bet.

Football Elite also got off to a winning start with Hannover '96 beating Hoffenheim 2-1 at 2.26, although this price had come in to 2.16 by the time I topped up after receiving Matt's e-mail. I had Hannover priced at 2.04 for this game, and 2.25 was needed to trigger a value bet, and this price was available earlier in the week. With a 15.9% edge, Koln appeared to be value, but then go and lose 0-3. Stuttgart were at 2.5 when I looked at this game, (they shortened to 2.4) and I had them priced at 1.83 which seemed almost too good to be true. They ran out 3-0 winners. Early days, but encouraging, and after a three month break, some fresh data for the spreadsheet.

On a final note, I am seeing my value picks in midweek frequently shorten before kick-off. Something I need to look at more closely in the coming weeks. This week in the Bundesliga, (all prices approximate), the value picks of Dortmund (priced by me at 1.55) came in from 1.67 to 1.63, Stuttgart from 2.5 to 2.4, Koln from 2.9 to 2.62, with Mainz '05 the only drifters, from 4.1 to 4.4.

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