Thursday, 11 August 2011

Opening Weekend EPL

As The Football Analyst cautions, just for fun remember, but here are some opening weekend thoughts based on the invalid premise that last season's form was carrying over.

Lay the big six.

All are priced too short according to my ratings. Liverpool are actually pretty close at 1.55 (I have them at 1.59), but Tottenham are 2.0 (2.16), Arsenal are 2.06 (2.66), Chelsea 1.7 (2.0), Manchester United are 1.56 (1.76) and Manchester City are 1.28 (1.5). So that's 60% of the fixtures covered. 

The home side is too short in the Blackburn Rovers v Wolverhampton Wanderers and Fulham v Aston Villa matches, QPR appear to be good value at 2.4 v Bolton Wanderers (form admittedly extra dubious here with QPR a promoted team and Bolton's form incredibly bad towards the end of last season), and Wigan I have priced at 2.2 which is exactly where the market has them. Slight value on Norwich City here.

There may be more value in the Under / Over markets; Fulham v Aston Villa (Over at 2.25), Tottenham Hotspur v Everton (Over at 2.12) and Newcastle United v Arsenal (Over at 1.89). The prices are not settled down yet on the QPR and Wigan games, nor on the Sunday / Monday games. Watch this space.


Graeme Dand said...

I know it's for fun, so doesn't really count but....

In the 6 Premiership games where one of my rating algorithms thinks there is some value, you agree with 5 of them Cassini. ;) My ratings have dictated DNB is the value whereas you're looking to lay the fav. If I was looking at laying or double chance, then we'd both be saying the same thing.

A slight disagreement on the Blackburn v Wolves game where I have Blackburn as a very small value bet and you think they are a little short. For the record, they wouldn't qualify as a system bet on my systems anyway as the value is too low, so we're maybe not too different here either.

Seeing the bets thrown up for this weekend whets my appetite a little for the season ahead......

Enjoy your holiday.


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