Saturday, 6 August 2011

Bundesliga Under Value

A couple of value bets on the 2.5 goals football in the Bundesliga today - please don't sue us or tell the police if some of them lose. They are based on the invalid assumption that the form from last season somehow carries over. It doesn't, necessarily, but the value on these two is hard to ignore. I may publish the Ligue 1 picks later if these don't let me down too badly.


Griff said...

Cassini, when you say tha you've gone back to last seasons form, can you tell me how many games you back to check the form?

Cassini said...

I keep records of each team's last six home games, and last six away games - weighted so that the most recent carries more weight than older games. For the newly promoted teams, I take an average from last season and adjust it but it'll be probably six games (three home / three away) before I have much confidence in them.