Friday, 8 October 2010

Autumn Gold

The Minneosta Twins have taken the lead in their last eight play-off games versus the New York Yankees, and lost them all. Tonight they traded at 1.51 with just a one run lead, and went on to lose 2-5.

One day, the Twins will hold a lead, but right now it's almost a licence to print money when the Twins lead.

I'm not sure where the BETDAQ liquidity went to, but it appears to have evaporated over night. The Twins - Yankees game was great for trading yesterday, but tonight absolutely nothing.

Readying to face the Yankees in the ALCS, the Texas Rangers are on the verge of winning their first ever post-season series after taking a 2-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in Florida and heading back to Arlington.

In the NLDS, the San Francisco Giants v Atlanta Braves series should see plenty of unders. The Giants have the best ERA in the national League, with the Braves in third place. Game One was a predictably tight affair, with the Under 6.5 available pre-game at 2.04.

Football, and the "weaker" draw predicted earlier this week for the Forest Green Rovers v Grimsby Town game came in with the match finishing 3-3. The light weekend means a rare opportunity to look a little closer at Leagues One and Two as well as the Conference.

Strong draws in Leagues One and Two are hitting at almost as good a rate as the Premier League right now, 41.67% and 38.89% respectively, but just the one 'strong' draw in League One on Saturday, Walsall v Exeter City.

In contrast, League Two has a veritable veast of 'strong' draws on the menu this weekend: Barnet v Bradford City; Cheltenham Town v Northampton Town; Lincoln City v Macclesfield Town; Morecambe v Shrewsbury Town. Another four games are rated as weak draws, with just Gillingham v Stockport County as a value home bet at 1.84.

In the Conference, Darlington look value at 1.78 to beat Hayes and Yeading United. Plenty of 'weak' draws here and Bath City at 2.6 v Eastbourne Borough looks tempting. The problem is that at this level, what looks value can often be explained by someone close to the club. I still have nightmares over the Weymouth v Rushden and Diamonds debacle! The raw ratings have the Barrow v Crawley Town game as a 'strong' draw, but the form tilts this one in Crawley's favour. With Crawley facing a long road-trip, and the draw available at 4.0, this might still be worth a small play.

This is a great time of year. The Elo football ratings start to settle down, the NFL is underway, baseball starts its post season, and the NBA is underway with the pre-season games at least. And now (ice) hockey is back with the NHL opening up last night, with a small profit. Always nice to start a new season in the green!

Elo ratings should work well in this league, with the draw eliminated, no single player domination such as in sports like baseball and basketball, and games almost every night. It's also a great game to watch, but as I have written before, in-play liquidity is just not there any more, (8 seconds in-play delay killed it - that's an eternity in a fast moving game like hockey), and it's seldom that I'll watch sports that I can't trade these days.


Anonymous said...

Don't follow NHL myself but there's a reasonable statistical crossover with (our) football.

You'll like the website which has great analysis of both sports.

Cassini said...

Love it - thanks for that link.