Friday, 8 October 2010

Numbers And Unders

The SBP needs to look behind the numbers, rather than just AT them: He wrote yesterday "Tough loss for us last night. Twins jumped out to a 3 run lead but were unable to hang on. It just so happens that we'll be backing them again tonight so I'm sure this one will turn out better" - and in case you missed it, they again took a lead, and again lost it.

Just two games today. The Cincinnati Reds play at the Philadelphia Phillies (Roy Oswalt pitching), and have not scored a run in their last 30 innings v the Phillies. Bearing in mind that the Phillies haven’t exactly hammered the Reds this season either, averaging just a little over four runs per game against them, makes Under 7.5 at 1.9 look value.

Following that battle in the east, the action moves west to San Francisco for game 2 of the Giants v Atlanta Braves, and I fancy another low scoring game here. Under 6.5 should be around 1.9+ but the market has yet to settle down with just £43 traded. Matt Cain is piching for the Giants with an ERA of 3.14 this season, against Tommy Hanson (ERA 3.33). Low ERAs and neither team hits well makes the Under the value bet.

A dip in the price on Liverpool to be relegated this season after today's news. They have traded as low as 11.5 for the drop - humbling times at Anfield to be in the same bracket as Blackburn Rovers, Fulham, Stoke City and Sunderland. But you can still back them for the title at 170 - though I would advise against it.

Internationals this weekend, and Talkbet asks "does anyone enjoy them?" - the answer from me is "No". I enjoy England games when we get down to the final stages and some meaningful matches, but early qualifying games don't interest me at all. They just get in the way of my ratings!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Can't be bothered to bring back the previous debate on Pete Nordstedt's methodology but a good example this weekend in his and his partner's newsletter.

Firstly, their ratings make the price of a Brighton win 2.00

Then they go on to say "If you fancy the Brighton win then dutching the 1 or 2 goal margin pays 2.17 and should be high on
your consideration as this offers more than their
rating price of 2.00."

Well now, it's hardly a surprise that the dutched price for a win of up to two goals is better than the straight win price is it. Last time I looked, it was possible for a team to win a match by more than two goals. Is that still the case?

Incidentally, the true price for Brighton to win by one or two goal, off the top of my head, should be around 6-4. 2.17 doesn't see like much value there lads (regardless of what occurs)

Like I said before. These guys have so many flaws in their thinking, it's unreal. Do people really pay for their services?