Tuesday, 19 October 2010

Decisions


A good finish to the 'weekend' with the strong draw predicted between Hercules and Villareal winning at 3.4. Hercules were 2-1 up, but a sending off allowed the Yellow Submarine to tie the game up. They then torpedoed themselves with two late dismissals, (for diving perhaps?) and Hercules held on for the 2-2 draw.

Blackburn Rovers and Sunderland (an intra-group game) also finished level, at 3.35.

Now that the early season period appears to be over, and the ratings are somewhat settled, I am going to run into games where various systems contradict each other.

The Newcastle United v Wigan Athletic game on Saturday is an extreme example. The ratings had Newcastle to win by 1.25 goals, but they were priced at 1.88 which qualified them as an odds-on favourite to lay. And just to confuse matters still further, the match qualified as a draw based on the 'intra-group' method.

I am leaning towards going with the longer priced option, since I believe there's more value to be found here, than there is backing at odds-on. Not that I don't believe that value can exist at short prices, just that it is harder to find and tends to be compressed.

The SBP had a good weekend on the NFL - four out of four. Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. Still, even a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you've pretty much nailed why your systems won't work.

And your last sentence pretty much nails why you thought they might work.

sam said...

Hi. I am working on my own ratings at the moment, and then turning it into what I see should be correct odds. However, If possible, please could you explain the following to me:

1. What should be the minimum value that I should look for, i.e. 10%, 20% etc.

2. The bookies and betfair markets are more or less very efficient. If I see too much value to be had, i.e. 30%+ then should I disregard my bet as I can't see the market being that wrong most of the time.

3. In your opinion, would it be better to concentrate on one aspect, i.e. Home win, Away Win or Draw only. Or should this not matter.

All help and advice will be greatly appreciated.

geoff said...

Hi- Great blog and one that I’ve followed for a while. I’ve set my own up and it would be greatly appreciated if you could add mine to your blogroll. I’ve deliberately waited a while before sending this request so that I can show you I’m not a “flash in the pan” blogger”!