Monday, 4 October 2010

Ratings v Positions

One of the strengths or weaknesses of Elo ratings is that they adjust slowly. This is a strength in that when a Barcelona loses at home to a Hercules, since the new ratings don't immediately have Hercules as the stronger team, but the weakness is that when a team genuinely is weaker, it can take a while for the ratings to reflect this.

With the new season 6 to 8 games in, there are some glaring differences between the ratings and the league standings. In the EPL, Everton and Liverpool are rated 5th and 6th, yet occupy 17th and 18th places respectively.

In Serie A, AS Roma are 4th ranked, and sit in 19th place, and in Ligue 1, Lyon are rated 3rd, yet are in 17th place.

In the unpredictable Bundesliga, Bayern Munich are still top-rated, but are languishing in 12th place while in La Liga, the ratings and table are very much in synch.

Of course the season is still young, and the ratings reflect more than just league games, so it's likely that most of these discrepancies will turn out to be temporary aberrations.

In the top leagues, the biggest climbers are Juventus and St Etienne, both up 8 places, and the biggest decliners are Lens, down 10.

Overall, the biggest movers in the leagues I follow are Queens Park Rangers and Accrington Stanley, who are both now ranked 15 places higher than at the season's start. The biggest decliners are Bristol City, 12 places worse off.

One other English club worthy of mention, is Berwick Rangers, who have climbed from 8th to 1st in the Scottish Third.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Well done on an interesting blog.
In relation to your findings on the laying odds on in the budesliga, you said last season (09/10) would have produced about 40 points profit to a level 1 point stake (i think).
What were the returns for the previous 3 seasons you looked at ?