Saturday, 30 October 2010

Get Inter The Groove

Always nice to start the weekend off with a winner, and Internazionale were expected to win by 0.7 at Genoa. At 2.22 this was a value bet.

As some of you may have noticed, I have a tendency to focus on draws, or value home selections, but away picks at this rating (of -0.7) or above have only lost once all season from 19 selections, and of course, that one loss was in the unreliable Bundesliga. Other selections in this range this weekend are Chelsea (1.48) who are -1.35 to win at Blackburn Rovers and Real Madrid (1.35), who are -1.67 to win at Hercules.

The ratings expected Bayern Munich to beat Freiburg by two, and won by exactly that 4-2, but at 1.33 this was too short for me. Odds-on favourites in Germany are usually to be opposed.

In the NBA, the Dallas Mavericks traded at 1.05 before losing by one point at home to the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Lakers / Suns Under 218.5 traded at 1.07 - it ended up at 220 points.

Unfortunately, I have to work extra hours on the day job this weekend, and I'm expected in the office as well which seems a little unreasonable, but that's life as a part-time trader.

Full-Time Trader Ben at Sports Trading Life had a post yesterday about making gambling pay. Rather provocatively titled Is This Why 99.9% Of Sports Gamblers Lose?, he writes about the importance on giving systems time before discarding or modifying them, and this is spot on in my opinion. It's certain that any off-the-shelf 'system' is going to work for too long, and it's up to the individual to put the time and effort in to finding something that works for them. Ben writes

I firmly believe that one of the main reasons why most people fail at gambling is because they never fully expect to be successful at it which means they will never give it the full amount of time and effort required to make it work.
I have to agree. There's no website that you can go to and find a winning system, but if you have the time and a certain amount of intelligence, it is quite possible to eke out an edge, but it's important to maintain a positive approach. Beating the odds is a challenge, but Betfair's Premium Charge is proof that several people achieve this. You can either rise to the challenge, come up with ideas, modify them as needed and become profitable, or you can be half-hearted about it, which in betting, as with most challenges in life, will doom you to failure. Henry Ford's quote sums it up "If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right."

1 comment:

rubbish said...

Followed you in on a few games and made a decent profit. Got Marseille today for some reason and just noticed you were keen on Auxerre. Oh well, fingers crossed.
All the best and thanks for posting up your fancies.