Sunday, 17 October 2010

Getting Serious

A losing day overall on the football, although the results in Serie A kept it close. The four one goal predicted winners for the weekend there all won, AC Milan (1.5), Roma (1.96), Palermo (1.67) and Sampdoria (2.26). Juventus were favoured by 1.25 and won at 1.39. Four weak draws in Serie A resulted in winners at Catania v Napoli (3.2) and Cesena v Parma (3.2).

The results in Italy pretty much went as expected, a sign perhaps that the early season period for extra care is at an end. More evidence is that all four odds-on favourites won in Germany this weekend, bringing the ROI on the Bundeslayga System down to 13.26%, and all four in Spain also won. Only in England were there surprises, and not really any big ones except for Manchester United giving up a 2-0 lead at home. A weakened Chelsea drawing at Aston Villa wasn't exactly an upset, and while Arsenal struggled to beat Birmingham, they did prevail in the end.

Anonymous commented "I like the way you have subtly shifted the Mainz loser on to Football Elite!". This isn't my intent, but I do have something of a dilemma when it comes to FE's recommendations. I can obviously not post Matt's selections up ahead of time, but often his picks are already on my list of value selections, and therefore it seems reasonable for me to mention them. I typically report on the Football Elite results after each weekend, win or lose, and if I have mentioned those teams ahead of time, it is because I identified those picks as value as well.

While we're talking about FE, this weekend was not the best they have had, with Mallorca today joining Mainz as a 0-1 home losers. On the short-list, Matt had Sampdoria mentioned above, but Fulham and Brescia lost, while Cesena drew.

Of the 11 weak draw predictions today, there were 4 winners, for a slender 1.46 point profit.

Tony Pulis was whining that Stoke City don't get awarded penalties, and he might have a point. I did a little digging, and last season Stoke City, along with Wolves, were awarded just two penalies in the Premier League. The most awarded was 12 to Chelsea, and of the total of 106 awarded, 80% were scored. Only Wigan missed more than they scored!

I traded the Phillies - Giants baseball on BETDAQ, and came away, somewhat fortunately perhaps, with another decent win on that site. The Phillies were 1.5 to lay over there early in the game, while a quick check on Betfair showed the price at closer to 1.6, so I layed it. But then BETDAQ being BETDAQ, I could not trade out due to very low liquidity, but it all ended well as the Giants took the game.

Aside from the generally low liquidity, there's another strange thing on BETDAQ which is that one minute it looks like a liquid market, with prices three deep, but the next instant, all the bids and offers vanish, and it's a ghost market.

Game Two of the baseball tonight, and I'll stick to trading rather than identifying pre-game value on the over / under!

A small profit on the just ended Minnesota Vikings - Dallas Cowboys NFL game, and always pleasing to see the Dallas Cowboys having a bad season. Not that I care for Drama Queen Brett Favre too much either.

The NBA regular season is getting closer, and already some decent liquidity on some of the pre-season games. A promising sign for the season ahead.

Back home, and Blackburn Rovers are -0.5 v Sunderland tomorrow night, and after that it's more European action.

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