Sunday, 24 October 2010

Strength In Numbers

The draws keep coming. The three strong draws predicted here for today were Parma v AS Roma, Bologna v Juventus and Udinese v Palermo. It says something about these picks when I am actually disappointed when one of them fails to come in. The games at Parma and Bologna both delivered at 3.35 and 3.75 respectively, but the shortest priced of the trio ended 2-1 to Udinese. So four winners from six picks this weekend at an average price of 3.45.

In the EPL, there were further signs that the ratings are clicking with Manchester United -1.2 @ Stoke City, and Liverpool -1.1 v Blackburn Rovers both winning by the expected margin (or as close to it as the scoring system in football allows).

Manchester City blotted the EPL copybook by slumping to a 0-3 defeat when they were rated higher by 0.5, and playing an intra-group rival. The early red-card is one of those things that happen, and no ratings system in the world is going to help when something like that happens.

In Serie A, Chievo were -1.2 v Cesena (won 2-1), Lazio were -0.9 v Cagliari (won 2-1), Lecce were -0.6 v Brescia (won 2-1) and in the late game Internazionale are a full -2 v Sampdoria. It doesn't get much better than that.

La Liga wasn't bad either. Almeria v Hercules was a weaker draw prediction which finished 1-1 at 3.4. Espanyol were -1 v Levante and won 2-1. Getafe were -1.3 v Sporting de Gijon and won 3-0, and Sevilla were -1.2 and won 4-3.

In the late game I have Villareal at -0.8 at 2.34 v Atletico Madrid.

Ligue 1 wasn't so good. Lyon were -1 to win at Arles, but could only draw, and Paris St Germain were -0.9 v Auxerre, yet lost 2-3. Lille are -0.6 at 2.56 in the late game.

And then there's the Bundesliga - the problem child of the Majors. Laying the odds-on favourite continues to pay the bills with Borussua Dortmund failing to beat Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen losing to Mainz 05 although Stuttgart did beat St Pauli. The ROI on this system now stands at a solid enough 17.26%, and while a profitable method shouldn't be knocked, I much prefer the finesse of using the ratings for my picks. The Bundesliga seems to be as good as any other league when it comes to strong draws, hitting at over 40%, but very weak when it comes to teams with an expected superiority in the 0.5 range. In fact more than 56% of such games result in an Away win, compared with 20% in the EPL or La Liga. But this is good information to know. All leagues have their own personalities as has been noted here before. The trick is to use the ratings to their strengths and if this means using the numbers in different way for certain leagues, then so be it.


geoff said...

Hi- fascinating reading as always- what are you basing the "strong draws" research on? is it your own stats or something that is widely availible? thanks

Anonymous said...

You need to take a reality check sometimes.

For, say, an average 1 goal football favourite, the chances of them winning by 1 are very close to the chance of them winning by 2. So I don't quite understand the need to pat yourself on the back quite so much when they win by 1. Had they won by 2, equally (almost) likely, it wouldn't mean your ratings are wrong any more than winning by 1 means your ratings are correct.

In fact, of course, ratings are never "right" as there's no right answer. You can only use all possible existing information in the best manner possible. And that information is constantly changing. Therefore, ratings should be constantly changing. Yet you are (i believe), effectively betting that your ratings will remain constant.

The folly of your back patting is perhaps better illustrated in a sport like NFL. If you make a team a 5-point favourite, are you predicting / expecting a 5 point win? And is that the outcome you'll back? Good luck with that.

You still show no understanding of value or ability to price matches. To simply back an outcome equivalent to the supremacy your ratings show is a pretty horrific approach to betting and shows a gross lack of understanding of pricing and hence value. You never mention how you would price up the outcome you "predict" and you are clearly not price sensitive.

Attempting to predict outcomes isn't any sort of strategy for a pro. Value-seeking based on the expectancy of ALL different outcomes is.