Saturday, 16 October 2010

Brest Value

Peter Nordsted's system of picking three EPL draws per weekend continues this weekend with Bolton v Stoke, Newcastle v Wigan and Aston Villa v Chelsea. I do have the Bolton - Stoke game as a weak draw, but Newcastle are the third strongest win of the day and Chelsea the fourth.

He does raise an interesting point when he comments on the HT draw.

Also of interest is the Half Time draw. Bolton have drawn their last four of eight home fixtures against teams of Stoke's grading and Stoke have been tied at half time in seven of their last eight away matches to teams of Bolton's stature.
It might be worth looking at this market too.

Based on the ratings, Newcastle are actually good value to beat Wigan at 1.88, as are Everton at 2.54 to beat Liverpool.

Another value pick is in France, where Brest are 1.61 v Arles-Avignon. This is good value in my opinion. Newly promoted Arles-Avignon are pointless in 8 games, while newly promoted Brest are in 5th place, with clean sheets in their last five games.

In Spain, Mallorca are priced at 2.02 to beat Espanyol, yet my ratings have them favoured by 1, a rating which more typically is in the 1.88 range.

In Serie A, four teams are favoured to win by 1, most generously priced are Sampdoria at 2.26 to beat Fiorentina.

In Germany, Mainz 05 are 0.75 favourites v Hamburg, and priced at a generous 2.35. I have Mainz at 2.11.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Has Nordstedt increased his sample sizes to 8?