Sunday, 9 October 2011

Adjust Meant For Trading

A great example tonight about the opportunities the NFL throws up almost every week. The Indianapolis Colts are a poor team this season. They have a great quarterback in Peyton Manning, but he is out injured, and without him, they have struggled this season losing all four games. Kansas City Chiefs are not much better, winning just one of four games. The visiting Chiefs were slight pre-game favourites, and everything pointed to a close game. Late first half, and it was all Colts - up 17-0 and later 24-7, and my lay of the Colts wasn't looking that great.

Momentum is key though, and the Kansas City Chiefs scored a touchdown late in the half after a drive where the Colts looked their usual hapless selves, and receiving the ball first in the second half, I wasn't as down about my position as I might have been. It is noticeable how the two halves in an NFL game can be complete opposites - one team dominates early in the game, the other team makes adjustments and returns the favour in the second half. As is often the case, I was proved right in my assessment, as the Chiefs dominated the second half and ran out relatively comfortable 28-24 winners, and I was just a little annoyed that I started backing the Colts back too soon and ended up with less of a profit than I should have. At least there was no panic tonight. In the past, I would have likely evened up and gone red-all-over at half-time, but the value was in opposing the Chiefs even more, but I was in deep enough already for my comfort level on this one.
Seventeen point comebacks seem to be almost the norm this season. When people are backing as low as 1.05 with more than half the game to go, there is a massive upside to opposing them.

1 comment:

gundulf said...

Nice trading there Cassini! I've no interest in or knowledge of NFL (and will keep it that way!) but one question if I might... why the odd amount laid? Perhaps I'm too much a creature of habit but I always lay to a round stake or round liability...just wondering whence came the £518 / £1713!?