Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Overreaction - It Happens

Hard to believe I know, but after all these years, I still make mistakes. Last night it was the final game of the weekend's American Football schedule, New York Jets v Miami Dolphins. After laying the Jets early (after exactly 8 seconds of action, the lay price dropped from 1.3 to 1.26 all because of 17 yards) and had around £300 on each side. Then, as is my wont, I dabbled with a few 'hopeful' bets, and then forgot all about one of them, which of course later got matched when it was no longer a good deal for me. The gambler in me wanted to let the bet run, but the trader said to take the loss, so the £300 became more like £200, all because of a lack of concentration. It happens.

Anyway, back to the 17 yards I mentioned, and what happened was that on the kick-off, the return was brought out to the 37 yard line, whereas the standard starting point is the 20 yard line. So with 59:52 left to play, the New York Jets chances of winning the game went from 76.9% to 79.4% all based on one play and 17 yards? The market often overreacts, but that move was one of the crazier price movements you'll see in these games. In the end, it would have paid to have listened to the gambler in me, but we're not at home to Mr. Gambler.

I have updated the ratings after the completion of the weekend's matches last night, and although there are four matches featuring two teams from my five leagues, the only one that is tempting for me is to lay Bayern Munich (1.97) at Napoli, who are generously priced, no doubt in part due to their defeat at the weekend at home to Parma. It happens. I have Bayern Munich at 2.27 and I'll rely on the numbers rather than overreact to one bad result.

Our old friend Slicer, he of the non-existent Holy Grail Bet, posted a comment on the Betfair Forum on the subject of the Martingale staking system, which was:
FACT- A Martingale System will always be profitable at around evens if:
1) There is no house limit.
2) You have an infinite amount of money.
3) You have an infinite amount of time.
Nothing new there except for one small flaw in his logic, (not the first time that has happened to him), which as someone pointed out is:
FACT - if you have an infinite amount of money, you cannot increase your wealth by betting, Martingale or otherwise.
Hard to argue with that.

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