Sunday, 16 October 2011

Moving Markers

I'm not sure if I have interpreted this correctly, but Lay Away For A Profitable Day was bemoaning the number of matches on a Saturday and wrote:

Most, if not all, of my Lays in the 1x2 markets are predetermined by a strict set of rules so it makes it easy for selection purposes, the problem is on a Saturday there are an awful lot of games that qualify and these markets are changing all of the time up to kick off.
I also put down "markers" these being the prices I would like to be matched at, however not everybody agrees with my interpretation of prices and they don't always get matched and I therefore have to adjust them as the time ticks towards kick off which on a Saturday can take up a lot of time.

The first part makes perfect sense. Your selection method identifies say one in ten matches as offering value, so on a Saturday when there might be 100 plus games in the leagues you follow, there will be around 10 bets. I guess I'm confused about the "putting down of markers", whatever that means, and then adjusting them. This very much sounds like identifying a price as value, not getting matched at that price and then adjusting the price you will take, i.e. betting at less than value. This is crazy. Unless there has been a change in circumstances causing the probabilities to change, it is far better to have a "No Bet" than it is to have a bet at less than value. Bets should not be placed because of what you THINK might happen, but on the basis of the PROBABILITY that it will happen. If the odds are not in our favour, don't bet.

As soon as I have priced up the five leagues I follow, I put bets into the exchanges, often at a better price than I think is value, but never at lower than value. I check throughout the week, and will move my unmatched bets down if they are unlikely to be matched, but again, never to below the value price. If the market price is less than value, then the spreadsheet says "No Bet" - for example, as shown in Yellow below for the recent Sochaux v Toulouse match.
Sochaux were value at 2.85 (or higher) but at the 2.66 available, this was a No Bet.


Lay Away said...

Hi Cassini

Your assessment of my last post is almost correct, the "markers" are basically me trying to get much better prices than the minimum price that I am prepared to accept which in all cases is 1.98, so I will look at the early markets and throw in a lay bet some way away from the current price in the hope that it is matched, if it doesn't get matched I will move it back in towards the current price.

Therefore it would only be wrong if I was to lay above 1.98 as that is the price that I have determined as acceptable for the type of bets that I am doing in the various leagues.

Love your Blog by the way and very happy that you are reading mine.



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