Monday, 24 October 2011

Forte And 4-2

Another weekend in the books, (actually, it's been over for a while, but I forgot to hit the Publish Post button yesterday) and Sunday ended up being my best day so far this month. My two XX Draw selections found one winner as Cagliari and Napoli drew 0-0, but Blackburn Rovers v Tottenham Hotspur let the side down, finishing 1-2. Still, two winners from three this weekend, (17 from 47 for the season) and the ROI for the season is a very respectable 26.8%.

As mentioned previously, it's interesting comparing results with others, and Green Pullover (that's him to the right)

and Griff have both thrown their hats into the ring. With an ROI of 18.9% from 35 bets, GP is looking at a Silver medal, while newbie Griff has only four proofed selections to date, with one winner and a current negative ROI, but it'll be a while before the ROI means anything on such a small sample. Still good enough for the Bronze medal. Peter Nordsted's "Game Of Two Halves" may well turn out to be a winning strategy, but it seems like a lottery to me, and one that has yet to produce a winner from six selections. Peter has some good ideas, and six games is nothing, so the jury is still out on this approach.

Football Elite found a winner in Hannover '96, who beat Bayern Munich 2-1. Hannover were recommended with the draw, so essentially a Bundeslayga that came in at 3.1, and a small profit on the weekend's selections. The Bundeslayga system also had a winner on Friday with Werder Bremen failing to win (an XX Draw selection) but Borussia Dortmund won easily enough v Koln.

October is usually an average month, but this one has already surpassed that benchmark with seven days still to come. The six months from October through March represents 68% of my profits since 2006, but the immediate future is looking bleak. As regular readers know, the NBA is my trading forte, and with no end to the dispute in sight, (another two weeks almost certainly to be cancelled at any moment), it's looking like a lean year for the kids and their Xmas presents. The dogs will soon be released into the wild to fend for themselves, (a little unfortunate for them since they weigh a combined 12lbs) and it'll be toast and Bovril (Marmite for Mrs. Cassini) for dinner every night with three cups infused per tea bag rather than the standard two.

The silver lining is that I have started to look back at my former favourite trading sport, the NHL, which in my early Betfair days was a nice earner for me, except that the introduction of the 8 second clock in 2006 not only eliminated the snipers from Canada, but took most of the in-play liquidity with them. Why the extra three seconds should apply to games in the south as well as in Canada, I'm not sure. Anyway, in the same way as I enjoy the challenge of finding value in football, it's the same with ice hockey, only a little easier because there's the 'no draw' market.
The baseball World Series was perfect last night when visiting St Louis went 2-0 at Texas early on, and went too short. An ideal situation where I would much rather oppose the leader, and get behind the home team, than try to ride the winning wave to the beach. It took until the eighth innings for the Rangers to take the lead (4-2), but by that time I was already Green All Over. As the score moved first to 1-2 and then to 2-2, there's just too much time in baseball to ponder what is the worst that can happen, and the primitive trader instinct to 'protect the bank' versus 'hang in there for the kill' usually wins, and I trade out too early. I like to think I am only cashing out at value, but between you and me, I suspect that on such occasions I am offering my fellow traders a very fair deal. That's just the kind of chap I am.

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