Sunday, 2 May 2010

Beware The Cusp

Thanks for the comments on my April summary post. The suggestion that I should specialise more may have some validity, but because I don't do the horses or dogs, the sports seasons tend to dictate where my focus is. April is a cusp month for a number of sports, and that could be the problem. We shall see.

A quiet start to May on the investment front, just as the doctor ordered. Only one NBA game yesterday and a couple of small punts on the handicap and over/under markets which came in. The Sports Betting Professor tipped the Cavaliers (v Celtics) at -6.5, and I backed the -7.5 on Betfair at 2.1 (not on the SBP's recommendation, but it reinforced my opinion). After trailing for much of the game, the Cavaliers finally ended up winning by 8 which was a nice start to the month. The Overs bet also came in.

Two games today, and again, no trading - just a couple of punts on the handicap and over/under markets again. Game 7s are always exciting, but Atlanta at home giving 9.5 at 2.2 looked good value, as did the Under 185.5. In the later game I am having a small interest on the Lakers -6.5 as well as a cheeky bet on the Over 201.5 which looks value at 2.28. On 9.December the total was 103.5 and the price was 1.63, and just last month on 2.April the total was 204.5 at 1.96. Both games finished Under, but with a lower total and the Lakers looking to get a good start to the series, 2.28 is just too high to ignore.

Football Elite had a poor weekend. The two Recommended Bets both failed to win, and three of the four Short-List bets lost, with just one winner (Xerex at 2.5). No serious damage because I used my lower 'end of season' stakes just for an interest. St Etienne actually teased by taking a 1-0 lead into HT today before losing 1-4. C'est la vie.

The Sports Betting Professor's baseball selections started the week poorly with three consecutive losers, but 4 of the last 5 have won so he's slightly in profit for the week. I've been reading up on the favourite-longshot bias, and with regard to baseball, the results suggest that the reverse is true. More on that in a future post.

The Lakers game is about to start and I need points, more from the Lakers though!

No comments: