Friday, 28 May 2010

Laykers, Tiger And Spin

The Lakers are too short at 1.27 SU against the Suns. Lay, with a view to trade. I do think the Lakers will win, but they will trade higher.

A paper by economist Jennifer Brown has reached the not-too surprising conclusion that playing in a tournament with Tiger Woods reduces the performance of golfers by a full stroke. Hardly a huge margin over a four day tournament, and in fact had I been asked to guess a figure, I would have gone higher.

A more interesting study might have been the performance of players in the same group as Tiger, especially on the final day, but that is yet to be done so far as I know.

Brown calls this an "adverse superstar effect" - in the face of a superior opponent, pro golfers have less incentive to compete.
And finally, an interesting way to spin a loss. From the SBP's mail earlier today:
We had a bunch of plays on Wednesday and we ended up losing a couple units, but we're still moving in the right direction in the MLB.
To be fair, his results overall recently ARE moving in the right direction. Just not on Wednesday!


Anonymous said...

I read comments all the time from you so called "traders" like the one you made here - expect them to win but will trade higher etc. etc.

It seems that all traders get the higher price without fail. Am I correct?

Paul said...

Hi Cassini,
Not knowing a lot about basketball, what does 1.27 SU mean? I see the Lakers are 1.99 to lay in the match odds market. Which market is this in?
Cheers as always,

brian bee said...

how many ticks higher would you aim for cassini?

Anonymous said...

SU=straight up? Current price about evens. Have you traded out of the 1.27 lay yet Cassini. I see why you made it value

Anonymous said...

Sounds like academic bollocks to me, I'm not sure what gauge she's using but if she's saying that players play one stroke worse in Tiger's tournaments than non-Tiger tournaments then that's because Tiger plays in the better tournaments on the harder courses.