Sunday, 12 December 2010

AFC West

Another stellar weekend from Football Elite, who followed up their Friday night pick of Hannover '96 with two winners on Saturday in Aston Villa (2.22) and Udinese (2.16). The latter two I had already identified among my seven home value picks, four of whom were winners with Manchester United (-1.09) still to play. Up 1.58 points on these so far. The draw bets made small losses this weekend, with the strong hitting at 1 in 4 for an overall loss of 0.5 points and the weak draws 3 from 11 for a loss of 0.8 points. Tottenham v Chelsea was perhaps a fortunate break for once. Such is the nature of football that the line between success and failure can come down to one play. Sometimes they go for you, sometimes against, and there's no point in agonising over each unlucky break. If your selection process is good enough, and as I have quoted before "to get worked up over individual bets, is as unproductive as a casino manager worrying over the outcomes of individual pulls of the slot machines".

For Football Elite, that's seven consecutive strikes, and they are, or rather he is, certainly in a rich vein of form right now.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks went one for three this weekend, for another profit, with the same Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea pick that came in for me, although Newcastle United v Liverpool and Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers both went to the home teams. Perhaps we both underestimated the 'Pardew factor'.

The latter game was SG's draw pick, so no joy there for him. His four lays all came in though, (Stoke, Liverpool, Birmingham and WBA) and good results for Sports Betting Universe with three from four of the top selections coming in at 2.5, 2.5 and 1.95 and backed up with good price wins on Hercules, Udinese and Lorient. Bragging rights to me (and Matt at FE) for the Aston Villa pick, but kudos to SBU for the Schalke '04 win at Mainz '05. As he pointed out, Schalke '04 are in good form right now, and up to fourth in my ratings for the Bundesliga, but although the form adjustment made me cautious, as with Villa, I thought the home side might have enough. Win one, lose won, and with the win at 2.22, I'll take that any day.

No football trading today due to work commitments, but I was home in time for some of the NFL. Laying the first touchdown continues to pay dividends, and the Chargers returned to form with a 31-0 win over a Matt Cassel-less Kansas City Chiefs team. Having already traded at a rather short 1.01 to win the Division, the Chargers play three poor teams in the final weeks of the regular season - 49ers, Bengals and Broncos are a combined 10-29. The Chiefs play three losing teams too, but better ones, with the St Louis Rams actually leading the NFC West with a losing record! Combined, the Chiefs' opponents are 17-22 and the Chiefs / Chargers tie-break currently favours the Chargers.

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