Wednesday, 22 December 2010

Winter Solstice

Another comment, this one from Mouldhouse who said:

Congrats on getting to a new high. Shows a lot of mental toughness to go almost 300 days since reaching a new high; 99.9% would be questioning if their edge had gone, or whether they were just making a lot of small gains and the occasional massive loss (which of course a lot of traders do).
I can honestly say that I never doubted my edge. Confidence was dented, and in that always wonderful thing called hindsight, over-staking was clearly a problem, but I gave myself a stern talking to, went back to basics again, and crawled my way back. OK, that sounds a little melodramatic, but it's what you have to do after a poor run. Accept it, learn from it, and move on from it. Mouldhouse continues:
I've never gone anywhere near 300 days before reaching a new high - in fact I've never gone over 60. I'd suspect you and most traders actually work a comparatively small edge, but the amount of iterations that you can perform in one day/hour/session/event means they add up to a decent sum over the long term; but like anything with a sub 5% edge, you can have sustained periods where you tread water.
A maximum of 60 days draw-down is great. One of the factors was that the losing run came at the end of my supposedly strong season of NBA, and with no NFL, NBA or proper football in store for a few months, it was always unlikely that I would recover in anything like 60 days. Baseball is slow (in more ways than one) and too many people know more about cricket and tennis than I do, which admittedly is not hard. No edge = no bet. A sustained period treading water?

The latest Premium Charge update shows my charges now down to 20.4%, and the dreaded charge is inexorably headed back to my account. A few hours ago, the Golden State Warriors came back from a double digit deficit at the Sacramento Kings who traded as low as 1.01 much too early, and the large green on that game won't help. But I'm not complaining. The top six most profitable months are those of October through March so I need to make hay while the sun shines.

French Football tonight, and Bordeaux at 1.67 v Lens look tasty to me, and a lay of Toulouse at 3.65 away to Valenciennes. Brest v Olympique Marseille looks the best bet for a draw at 3.3. Bon chance.

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