Wednesday, 1 December 2010

Almost Genius

Brest defeated Lens last night at the second attempt, and Kidderminster Harriers v York City, a strong draw forecast, came home with a 0-0 draw, for a profitable end to the month for football.

Movember is at an end, and while any month with a four figure net profit is a good month, it was a poor month by November standards. The big winner, it will be no surprise to read, is the NBA trading, (thank you Utah Jazz) followed by NFL trading. The big loser was College Basketball, where one game cost me a fair chunk. Actually, it was my decision that cost me a fair chunk - shouldn't really blame the game. Small profits on football, cricket, and College Football and some profitable arbs and that was it for the month.

More of the same in December I guess, with the NBA still in full-swing, and the NFL reaching the end of its short regular season. College Football reaches the end with a lot of meaningless Bowl Games, and a handful of important ones. The Ashes continues, football reaches the mid-point of the season, SPOTY takes place another year is consigned to the past and it all starts over again in January.

The poll I posted a few days ago has served it's purpose. Even with the knowledge that more than 80 per cent of people answer the question incorrectly, more than 60% of you got it wrong. I'll let the comment from Sports Bet Universe speak for me:

I love that question and it's intriguing to see that most people have fallen into the trap of answering that it cannot be determined. It shows that very clearly that the human mind is easily tricked. It is almost a genius type of question to be posing on a trading blog as it highlights the fact that to do well in this business you do need to think outside the box and not follow the herd. I would say that a majority of traders/punters are herd creatures who get sucked into prices that are driving down (say after a goal in football or a break of serve in tennis) when as you have mentioned a majority of the time the real value is to oppose.

The answer is simple when you look at Anne. If she’s married, then the answer is YES because Anne is looking at George. If Anne is not married, then the answer is YES because Jack is looking at her.


I do have a blog myself but I'm rubbish at updating it and wish I could have more time to dedicate. Congratulations on maintaining such dedication to blogging every day and keeping it interesting.
A genius type of question! Almost. Anyway, it did show that even sharp minds can be fooled very easily.

Since polls are so much fun, there's another one today. The picture in this post shows two squares marked A and B. Simple question - which square is darkest, A or B or are they both the same. I'll keep it up there for a few days.

Good luck in December.

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