Tuesday, 21 December 2010

Not Fair!

I wrote on 7th October this year that

He [Derek McGovern] also sheds some light on the odds-on draw phenomena found in Italy. Liam Brady has this to say: When a draw suits both teams in Italy, the game will end in a draw. It's all to do with the mentality of the Italian people. They see nothing wrong in such an arrangement.
Apparently some people on the Betfair forum don't read this blog. Albinoleffe v Piacenza in Serie B yesterday saw the draw price at around 1.5 pre-game. £5,160,650 was matched on the game, of which £4,841,537 was matched on the draw. 'Only' around £300,000 was bet on either Albinoleffe or Piacenza. Alarm bells anyone? It shouldn't be hard to see how this game will play out, and the game ended as a 3-3 draw. I have no sympathy for anyone laying the draw at 1.5 or anywhere close who then claims 'fix' and expects Betfair to declare the game void. Somehow I doubt that they would have been crying foul had the result not been a draw. The only people I do have some sympathy for are those who layed it at 3.0+ in the expectation that the game would be 'normal'. Anyone getting involved in this game when the draw price was odds-on knew exactly what they were doing or they have no business betting. Laying the draw just doesn't make sense to me. If there are no goals you lose, and if there is a goal, the price on the draw isn't going to move, because there is a good reason the pre-game price was so short.

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