Tuesday, 21 December 2010

Making Lemonade

Laidback writes:

Hi Cassini. Been following the blog for some time now and found it very interesting. As you say, I like the fact that it isn't a P&L blog as so many which are stop getting updated as soon as the going gets tough.
One question if I may. I've been following the Bundesliga lays with interest, but when it first started out in early September your preliminary research indicated a basic system of laying odds on top league clubs in Germany, France and England at 1.3 or over. I know England and France weren't as profitable but is there any reason why you appear to have dropped them altogether?
Basically, I prefer to use my ratings, rather than use a 'system' blindly, and it's simply more profitable to use my ratings in every top league but Germany's. The numbers over the past four seasons all showed profits here blindly laying at 1.3 to 1.99, and the Bundesliga is in (pun intended) a league of its own for 'wacky' results, and so I try to turn this to my advantage as much as I can and let my ratings take second place on these matches. If the ratings give me lemons, I'll make lemonade.

December's good run (nice to close ot the year on a high - this is currently my best month since February, which was a long time ago), continued last night with a profit on the Chicago Bears, who beat the Minnesota Vikings in Minnesota's first outdoor home game in nearly 40 years. The roof of their stadium collapsed under the weight of snow a few days ago!

With the Betfair Premium Charge page for last week showing charges at 20.51%, I anticipate the Premium Charge will soon become a factor again. I have been using BETDAQ where possible, but in my opinion they just haven't seized the opportunity and have a poor selection of in-play events and an interface that I still find clunky to use. I have no problems with pure punts on there, but money is easier to make in-play, and for that, I need in-play events, a smooth interface, and the obligatory edge of course.

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