Friday, 31 December 2010

Fink Tank

Looking ahead to this weekend's Premier League games, the value bets appear to be West Ham United at 2.1 v Wolverhampton Wanderers with Sunderland at 1.92 v Blackburn Rovers worthy of mention. I have West Ham -0.9 and Sunderland at -0.74, and Sunderland have come in from 1.99 in the last 36 hours or so. 1.99 was available on Thursday morning. West Ham have actually drifted slightly, so you win some, lose some with these movements.

The one strong draw is the game between Stoke City and Everton. Strong draws in the EPL continue to be 'strong' and are hitting at 38.1% currently.

I've recently started using the Fink Tank website to compare my expected goal superiority numbers. Rather than use goals in their rating model, Fink Tank uses Shots On Goal, which as I have written before is a much better option. It's noticeable that they tend to rate the away team stronger than I do, but with big-priced away wins such as Wolves win at Liverpool this week, Wigan, WBA and Newcastle at Arsenal and Blackpool at Newcastle, following their value picks overall is profitable this season. Last season's profits came from the home selections though, so how reliable these numbers are is still open to debate, but it's always interesting to see other ideas and ratings.

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