Saturday, 6 February 2010

Elo - "Summer and Lightning"

A poor start to the weekend with last night's predicted draw at Newcastle United ending up as a 5-1 rout for the home side over Cardiff City. I began to think this one was in trouble after 15' when the third goal went in for the home side.

Not to worry - the greatest system in the world isn't going to get every game right, and some good results today boosted the bank. Draws at Bolton Wanderers, Ipswich Town, Exeter City, Walsall along with the Any Unquoted for Manchester United and good priced home wins for Liverpool, Burnley and Stoke City were probably the pick of the bunch.

League Two saw four games finish exactly as predicted, as did every game in the Scottish Premier league today...

Back to the top for a moment, and the only prediction that was totally wrong was Manchester City to win at Hull City. This was the only game where laying the opposed team would have been a losing proposition. However, two more games to come, and as I wrote yesterday the expectation is that Chelsea will win by 2 and Birmingham will beat Wolverhampton by 1.

I was dreading a Fulham win at Bolton. Football Elite selected Bolton to win this game, whereas I had it as a draw. Hence I was on both outcomes, with fortunately the most profitable outcome resulting. This is the second consecutive week where Football Elite have picked a home win in the Fulham game and I have had the draw. Last week the (almost) inevitable away win came up, but lightning didn't strike twice.

In their Short-List bet today, Football Elite and myself were in agreement on Burnley, who at 2.78 were excellent value to beat West Ham.

The spreadsheet is also suggesting that certain predicted results are more likely to end up as under or over 2.5 goals than would be expected. Currently where the draw is the predicted outcome, the ratio of unders to overs is currently 2:1. Early days, but something to watch.

I'm also wondering if we are in a golden time of the season with the ratings having settled down, yet teams still have plenty to play for and thus form is at its most reliable.

In Rugby Union, my back of England in the Six Nations came in at 1.62. Not quite as comfortably as I was expecting, but a win nevertheless. I'm also on France tomorrow at 1.41.

1 comment:

Kokoooooooo said...

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