Sunday, 7 February 2010

Super (Bowl) Sunday

Still time for it all to go pear-shaped, but the day is perfect to this point. As predicted by the Elo ratings, Birmingham City were one goal better than Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Chelsea's two goal margin of victory was also exactly as predicted. The Elo ratings to this point, at least at the Premier League level, are proving to be far more accurate and profitable than I would have thought possible. As I cautioned yesterday though, I have a feeling that as the season enters its silly season, predictions may not be quite so accurate.

Football Elite still have one match to go today, but after short-listing Rennes yesterday, a 4-2 winner at 3.25, they followed up today with Recommended Bets of Mainz '05 (2.3) v Borussia Moenchengladbach and Real Mallorca (2.34) v Villarreal who both obliged as 1-0 winners. From the short-list, there was another winner with Atalanta (2.36) beating Bari, also by 1-0. Matt certainly finds the unders with his recommended bets with 75% (27 of 36) finishing that way. Since I subscribed, the picks overall are up after 5% commission, with the short-list bets up 79.84 to a 10 point stake, but the recommended bets down 50.90.

My Rugby Union bet also came in with Les Bleus beating the Scots as expected.

So on to the Super Bowl. My numbers have a narrow, 32-31, win for the Indianapolis Colts which suggests a bet on the over 55.5 at 1.96 is value, along with the New Orleans Saints '+4.5 at 2.0, or straight up at 2.88. However, I won't be risking much pre-game on these selections. While these ratings might be good for a regular season game, the Super Bowl is anything but a normal game. I shall be trading in-play, looking for the Saints to gain the upper-hand early, with the Colts coming back as the game unfolds. At 2.88, the Saints are value, but with a view to trading out if the price drops to odds-on.


Craig said...

I hope you managed to persevere with your initial Saints back!

The Real Moaner

Unknown said...

Excellent results you're achieving Cassini. Keep up the good work.

Talkbet said...

Nice posts as usual Cassini! ELO ratings going well, I like that style of predicting goal margins in a game, thats where the decent odds are anyway.