Thursday, 18 February 2010

Staying The Course

I was reminded of the above while I was catching up with the major European leagues over the past few days. (I decided to forfeit my blogging time and focus on something that might actually make me some money).

As I entered the results week by week, it was impossible not to look at them without imaging the possible returns had I been 'live' at the time. When an above average week comes along, there's that pang of regret that I didn't start this earlier, but then the dry week comes along and there's that sigh of relief that I hadn't!

Although the study in the quote above applies to horse racing systems, what I am doing isn't that far removed, and I suppose the point I am trying to make is that systems need time. It is only with the benefit of a longer time-frame that you really know what you have, or don't have. As Churchill said "The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward”

My worst week for exact predictions in any league is, perhaps not surprisingly, zero although the good news is that this nadir has only been hit once (September, in Spain). On the zenith side, the best, or should I say le magnifiquest week, was in France when 6 of 10 matches were spot on.

Overall though, the winners across Italy, Spain and France (I haven't finished Germany yet) are remarkly consistent at 26.58%, 26.15% and 27.31% respectively so 3 winners in any one league is good. The Premier League by contrast hits at 29.44%.

The ratings had their first test yesterday with Manchester United predicted to win by 1 goal in Milan. As most readers will know, they did just that by the most profitable 1 goal margin, but Real Madrid should also have won, but didn't.

Germany should be completed in the next couple of days, and then we can have a 'live' weekend.


Edgehunters said...

Hi Cassini
I think that your point about punters not giving systems enough time is so right. I also think that this lack of patience is what causes a lot of the other short comings we fall prey to such as chasing and over staking.
Looking back that has definitely been one of my major short comings.
My opinion is that the vast majority of punters (me included) are guilty of chasing the one Holy Grail system, method or angle that will make us massive profits. And that is why the vast majority of punters lose overall.
Over time I have come to admire the bloggers like yourself or members of forums that find methods or systems and stick with them (with only minor adjustments) month in month out, year in year out. At first they only seem to be making a small amount of progress but overtime things seem to snowball.
I think the point you made about looking back is a major factor in their success because the greater their track record of success the easier it is to deal with losing spells because they will have a good idea that the dip in form will be only temporary.
This concept has changed my approach to betting and I have now started my own blog ( where I will be choosing a portfolio of methods and then I will stick with them for as long has it takes to make a reasonable assumption as to their profitability.

Anonymous said...

Very true Edgehunter (excellent name by the way).

There are a number of reasons why xx% of punters fail in their betting, patience is a huge one. Whether that be sticking with a method/system or indeed being able to hold off on their betting until a profitable bet appears i.e. a vast majority of punters simply have to bet, regardless of the fact they are less than confident in the bet they are about to place.

The majority of punters also never look back (except on their winning bets) and if they simply took time to analyse why their bet did not succeed they would have a better understanding of why they are a 'loosing' punter. This would then allow them to be in a better position to amend their punting approach.

Anonymous said...

I was under the impression you were using your ratings? Are you saying you are only paper trading?

Anonymous said...

I often feel people who try out new systems overstake and get quickly disillusioned when they have a loss, keep potential loses below your pain threshold, whether it wins or loses you've been able to give it plenty of time.

Swearbox said...

There's some interesting reading on this blog for sure and I'd like to add to it if I may.

I agree wholeheartedly with Edgehunters where he says...

"My opinion is that the vast majority of punters (me included) are guilty of chasing the one Holy Grail system, method or angle that will make us massive profits. And that is why the vast majority of punters lose overall."

... as I think this gives rise to constant chopping and changing methods in a bid to achieve success. This changing of methods has it's pros and cons in that following a flawed method/system for a long time is counterproductive much the same as not giving a time proven system enough time to bring in profits over the longer term.

The trouble with most punters as I see it is they want it all and they want it now and nowhere near enough thought goes into their overall game plan. I'm at risk of writing a whole novel here so I'm going to save your blog space and write it on my own page. If you care to read it it'll be at when it's written up.

I'm going to add your blog link to my blogroll as I think it's a great resource. Please add mine if you think it's worth a read - it's only a couple of weeks old and I'm still getting the hang of things but I'm getting there. Good luck as you go forward.