Sunday, 21 February 2010

Home Advantage

Close to home, not a bad day yesterday until I left Dover behind me and expanded the Elo ratings into Europe.

After being spot on in 6 of 10 French games last week with no money involved, so far this weekend they are 0 from 6.

In Spain, Barcelona did win on the Any Unquoted, and Deportivo won, but Mallorca fell at home to Sevilla which was costly.

In Italy, just two games, with Internazionale expected to win by 2 losing two players in the fist half and holding out for a draw. These things happen I suppose. Genoa did at least win comfortably at 1.96 and were also one of Football Elite's Recommended Bets along with Mallorca.

This service has had a strong couple of weekends, with five consecutive Recommended Bet winners before Mallorca's loss yesterday.

Standout bets for today appear to be Blackburn Rovers at 2.04, Fulham at 2.14, Malaga at 2.24, Atalanta at 2.22 and Palermo at 2.02. All should win by one goal.

Away from home, Tottenham Hotspur should win by 1 at Wigan Athletic, but the record of away teams favoured by 1 is very poor and the value is in laying Spurs at 2.12.

Draws at Manchester City (v Liverpool) and Bristol City (v West Bromwich Albion).

Expected to win by 2 are Aston Villa, Real Madrid, Roma and Marseille.

It's interesting how the leagues vary. I'm not talking about differences between the Premier League and the Scottish Third Division, those would be understandable, but why are there such big differences between say the percentage of draws hit in the Premier League (44%) and Ligue 1 (22%)?

One goal home win predictions hit at 61% in the Premier League but only 43% in Germany.

One goal away wins in the Premier League? 21%. Italy? 58.3%!

Since the stats are only a few months old, it's probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions, but some of the differences are quite staggering.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Out of interest what's your sample size for your results? Is this causing the disparities between the leagues?